Sat, Feb 1, 2014·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Minnesota Wild 3, Calgary Flames 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 06 | 14 | 212 | 01 | 323 |
| CGY | 17 | 118 | 14 | 13 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:36CGYTJ GaliardiAssists: Kevin Westgarth, Chris Butler · Backhand, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 14:03MINMatt CookeSHUnassisted · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 18:24CGYDennis WidemanAssists: Chris Butler, TJ Galiardi · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–2
- P3 1:00CGYMikael BacklundSHAssists: Mark Giordano, Lee Stempniak · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–3
- P3 10:31MINDany HeatleyPPAssists: Mikael Granlund, Zach Parise · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–3
- P3 15:55MINKeith BallardAssists: Kyle Brodziak, Dany Heatley · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–3
- OT 2:25CGYMikael BacklundGWGAssists: Sean Monahan, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.40 xG3–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 9:47MINMatt Cooke: Interference2 min
- P1 9:47CGYChris Butler: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:51CGYTJ Brodie: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:24MINCharlie Coyle: Interference2 min
- P2 2:32CGYLee Stempniak: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:26MINMike Rupp: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:24MINCharlie Coyle: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 16:17MINZach Parise: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:19CGYLance Bouma: Holding2 min
- P3 10:14CGYJoe Colborne: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brodziak won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestZucker – Coyle – Niederreiter3:19
xG 0.34–0.03 (93%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Pominville – Parise – Granlund12:00
xG 0.56–0.25 (69%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Cooke – Brodziak – Fontaine3:32
xG 0.16–0.07 (68%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Heatley – Coyle – Niederreiter4:05
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStoner – Prosser2:20
xG 0.34–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Ballard – Stoner7:04
xG 0.44–0.35 (56%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
- Scandella – Prosser8:40
xG 0.39–0.32 (55%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- Hudler – Stempniak – Backlund9:08
xG 0.08–0.10 (45%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- McGrattan – Westgarth – Galiardi2:54
xG 0.25–0.34 (42%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Cammalleri – Colborne – Monahan6:39
xG 0.26–0.39 (39%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Stajan – Jones – Bouma8:50
xG 0.18–0.45 (29%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestButler – Brodie2:36
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Butler – Breen3:21
xG 0.39–0.34 (53%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Smid – Brodie2:28
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).