Sun, Feb 2, 2014·Verizon Center, Washington
Detroit Red Wings 5, Washington Capitals 6 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 17 | 210 | 213 | 00 | 530 |
| WSH | 312 | 110 | 13 | 13 | 628 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:43WSHJason ChimeraAssists: Joel Ward, Connor Carrick · Wrist, 0.33 xG0–1
- P1 7:20WSHJoel WardPPAssists: Marcus Johansson, Jason Chimera · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
- P1 11:40DETGustav NyquistPPAssists: Daniel Alfredsson, Niklas Kronwall · Wrist, 0.40 xG1–2
- P1 16:05WSHJohn CarlsonPPAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Martin Erat · Slap, 0.06 xG1–3
- P2 13:30DETTomas TatarAssists: Riley Sheahan, Tomas Jurco · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–3
- P2 13:49WSHJoel WardAssists: Jason Chimera, Connor Carrick · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–4
- P2 18:49DETGustav NyquistPPAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Tomas Tatar · Tip-in, 0.13 xG3–4
- P3 0:42DETGustav NyquistAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Niklas Kronwall · Tip-in, 0.07 xG4–4
- P3 4:28WSHTroy BrouwerUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–5
- P3 6:25DETJustin AbdelkaderAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Henrik Zetterberg · Backhand, 0.10 xG5–5
- OT 2:37WSHAlex OvechkinPPGWGAssists: John Carlson, Nicklas Backstrom · Slap, 0.06 xG5–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:02DETGustav Nyquist: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 11:31WSHConnor Carrick: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 13:21WSHAaron Volpatti: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:33DETKyle Quincey: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 19:19DETJakub Kindl: Holding2 min
- P2 16:52WSHTroy Brouwer: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 2:03DETTomas Tatar: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:56DETHenrik Zetterberg: Tripping2 min
- OT 1:26DETBrendan Smith: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Beagle won the faceoff against Zetterberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Sheahan – Jurco11:15
xG 0.44–0.23 (65%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Zetterberg – Abdelkader – Nyquist14:01
xG 0.64–0.53 (55%)attempts 18–12goals 2–1
- Eaves – Miller – Glendening4:05
xG 0.01–0.02 (46%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Alfredsson – Zetterberg – Andersson2:15
xG 0.02–0.06 (29%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Ericsson16:22
xG 0.69–0.55 (56%)attempts 21–12goals 1–1
- Quincey – DeKeyser14:56
xG 0.28–0.16 (63%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Kindl – Smith13:39
xG 0.31–0.96 (25%)attempts 13–12goals 1–2
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Ward – Fehr5:31
xG 0.37–0.11 (77%)attempts 5–5goals 1–1
- Brouwer – Beagle – Johansson9:50
xG 0.29–0.11 (73%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Fehr – Beagle – Volpatti2:23
xG 0.03–0.06 (33%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Chimera – Ward – Beagle2:06
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestErskine – Carrick15:55
xG 0.91–0.24 (79%)attempts 16–17goals 3–1
- Alzner – Carlson15:53
xG 0.37–0.60 (38%)attempts 11–16goals 0–1
- Strachan – Orlov14:48
xG 0.12–0.41 (23%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).