Sun, Feb 2, 2014·Centre Bell, Montreal
Winnipeg Jets 2, Montréal Canadiens 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 010 | 113 | 112 | 235 |
| MTL | 012 | 19 | 010 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 9:13WPGToby EnstromAssists: Chris Thorburn, Blake Wheeler · Wrap-around, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 17:06MTLBrian GiontaAssists: Tomas Plekanec, Andrei Markov · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P3 1:04WPGMichael FrolikGWGAssists: Andrew Ladd · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
Penalties (15)
- P1 11:11WPGOlli Jokinen: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:18MTLAndrei Markov: Interference2 min
- P2 16:27WPGMark Stuart: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:27MTLBrendan Gallagher: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:53MTLBrendan Gallagher: Holding2 min
- P2 19:33WPGDustin Byfuglien: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:33MTLTravis Moen: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:22WPGChris Thorburn: Interference2 min
- P3 12:58WPGDustin Byfuglien: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:30MTLBrendan Gallagher: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:00MTLDaniel Brière: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00MTLDaniel Brière: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 0:00WPGAl Montoya: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00WPGAnthony Peluso: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00MTLMax Pacioretty: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Plekanec won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Little – Frolik11:30
xG 0.50–0.20 (71%)attempts 17–15goals 1–0
- Thorburn – Wheeler – Scheifele11:10
xG 0.23–0.11 (68%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Tangradi – Peluso – Wright3:28
xG 0.06–0.15 (28%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Enstrom – Bogosian14:31
xG 0.39–0.36 (51%)attempts 15–15goals 1–0
- Pardy – Ellerby3:58
xG 0.01–0.02 (28%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Stuart – Trouba9:56
xG 0.29–0.63 (32%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- Brière – Gionta – Plekanec10:33
xG 0.10–0.12 (44%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Prust – Bourque – Eller10:15
xG 0.27–0.48 (36%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Desharnais – Pacioretty – Gallagher10:48
xG 0.28–0.51 (35%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
- Moen – Bournival – Thomas5:18
xG 0.10–0.37 (22%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSubban – Beaulieu2:47
xG 0.40–0.05 (89%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Markov – Emelin13:10
xG 0.39–0.40 (49%)attempts 11–14goals 0–1
- Gorges – Subban12:13
xG 0.38–0.43 (47%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).