Mon, Feb 3, 2014·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Philadelphia Flyers 5, San Jose Sharks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 112 | 07 | 49 | 528 |
| SJS | 28 | 05 | 09 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:23PHIMark StreitPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Scott Hartnell · Slap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 7:33SJSMatt NietoPPAssists: Tommy Wingels, Matt Irwin · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–1
- P1 12:32SJSMatt NietoAssists: Brent Burns, Joe Thornton · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–2
- P3 1:11PHIMatt ReadAssists: Steve Downie, Sean Couturier · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 2:29PHIMichael RafflGWGAssists: Erik Gustafsson, Adam Hall · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–2
- P3 3:56PHIClaude GirouxUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–2
- P3 17:44PHIJakub VoracekAssists: Claude Giroux, Scott Hartnell · Wrist, 0.10 xG5–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:44SJSMatt Nieto: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 6:14PHINicklas Grossmann: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 19:18PHIErik Gustafsson: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:44PHIAndrej Meszaros: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:45SJSAndrew Desjardins: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:43PHIWayne Simmonds: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:31PHISteve Downie: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Thornton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestLecavalier – Simmonds – Schenn12:35
xG 0.64–0.06 (91%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Downie – Read – Couturier9:06
xG 0.37–0.00 (100%)attempts 12–3goals 1–0
- Hartnell – Giroux – Voracek10:24
xG 0.54–0.28 (66%)attempts 16–7goals 2–1
- Hall – Rinaldo – Raffl5:22
xG 0.11–0.05 (67%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchenn – Gustafsson13:33
xG 0.64–0.14 (82%)attempts 14–11goals 3–0
- Coburn – Grossmann13:23
xG 0.50–0.27 (65%)attempts 20–7goals 1–1
- Streit – Meszaros15:46
xG 0.53–0.34 (61%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- Havlat – Kearns – Sheppard6:02
xG 0.06–0.25 (20%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Marleau – Havlat – Pavelski4:19
xG 0.08–0.28 (23%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
- Kearns – Sheppard – Wingels3:05
xG 0.02–0.22 (9%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
- Brown – Desjardins – Hayes7:06
xG 0.04–0.28 (13%)attempts 5–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBoyle – Vlasic2:37
xG 0.07–0.01 (89%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Hannan – Stuart7:29
xG 0.11–0.12 (48%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Hannan – Boyle2:46
xG 0.02–0.18 (8%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).