Tue, Feb 4, 2014·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Toronto Maple Leafs 1, Florida Panthers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 04 | 08 | 19 | 121 |
| FLA | 019 | 118 | 311 | 448 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:14FLATom GilbertPPAssists: Brian Campbell, Jonathan Huberdeau · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P3 5:21FLAJesse WinchesterGWGAssists: Brian Campbell, Scott Gomez · Deflected, 0.06 xG0–2
- P3 9:31TORDavid ClarksonAssists: Nazem Kadri · Snap, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 13:22FLAShawn MatthiasUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 17:30FLAMarcel GocENAssists: Tomas Kopecky, Mike Weaver · Wrist, 0.63 xG1–4
Penalties (4)
- P2 0:30TORDavid Clarkson: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 6:31FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:31TORJake Gardiner: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:52TORDion Phaneuf: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestLupul – Kessel – Bozak4:09
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Clarkson – van Riemsdyk – Kadri3:26
xG 0.13–0.05 (71%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- McClement – Raymond – Kulemin4:11
xG 0.07–0.15 (32%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- Smithson – Orr – Bodie5:09
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Gleason – Rielly11:01
xG 0.49–0.48 (51%)attempts 14–13goals 0–1
- Gardiner – Rielly3:53
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Gunnarsson11:20
xG 0.08–0.36 (19%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBoyes – Bergenheim – Barkov16:03
xG 0.95–0.40 (70%)attempts 22–9goals 0–0
- Upshall – Bjugstad – Huberdeau10:59
xG 0.66–0.14 (82%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Kopecky – Goc – Fleischmann12:37
xG 0.74–0.46 (62%)attempts 16–9goals 0–1
- Gomez – Matthias – Winchester10:48
xG 0.25–0.23 (52%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeaver – Kulikov19:29
xG 1.40–0.42 (77%)attempts 32–16goals 0–0
- Jovanovski – Gudbranson12:51
xG 0.50–0.13 (80%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Campbell – Gilbert19:40
xG 0.88–0.51 (63%)attempts 20–12goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).