Tue, Feb 4, 2014·Verizon Center, Washington
New York Islanders 1, Washington Capitals 0
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 08 | 07 | 113 | 128 |
| WSH | 08 | 08 | 06 | 022 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 2:16NYIAndrew MacDonaldGWGAssists: Brock Nelson · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
Penalties (16)
- P1 2:34WSHTyson Strachan: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:34NYIMatt Martin: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:16NYIJosh Bailey: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 17:23WSHJohn Erskine: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 1:41NYIThomas Vanek: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:32NYIThomas Vanek: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:28WSHJoel Ward: Interference2 min
- P2 17:41NYIMatt Martin: Boarding2 min
- P2 17:41WSHDmitry Orlov: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:41NYICasey Cizikas: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:12WSHTroy Brouwer: Interference2 min
- P2 0:00WSHConnor Carrick: Holding2 min
- P3 7:15NYIMatt Donovan: Holding2 min
- P3 8:26WSHJohn Carlson: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P3 10:31WSHMarcus Johansson: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:55NYILubomir Visnovsky: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Clutterbuck – Grabner6:18
xG 0.13–0.05 (73%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Vanek – Okposo – Tavares11:01
xG 0.23–0.19 (55%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- McDonald – Martin – Cizikas2:02
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Boulton – Martin – Cizikas3:46
xG 0.03–0.07 (31%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVisnovsky – Hickey12:04
xG 0.17–0.11 (61%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Strait – MacDonald11:10
xG 0.16–0.22 (42%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Donovan – de Haan9:27
xG 0.12–0.44 (22%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestLaich – Fehr – Beagle2:15
xG 0.12–0.02 (85%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Laich – Wellman – Wilson3:53
xG 0.07–0.05 (56%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Erat – Ovechkin – Backstrom10:19
xG 0.19–0.18 (50%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
- Chimera – Ward – Fehr6:05
xG 0.06–0.09 (38%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAlzner – Carlson10:24
xG 0.63–0.09 (87%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Carlson – Orlov2:03
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Erskine – Strachan8:01
xG 0.11–0.14 (46%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).