Tue, Feb 4, 2014·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Ottawa Senators 5, St. Louis Blues 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 013 | 18 | 310 | 00 | 3 | 531 |
| STL | 19 | 223 | 113 | 05 | 2 | 450 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:08STLBrenden MorrowAssists: Patrik Berglund, T.J. Oshie · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 14:50OTTErik KarlssonAssists: Jason Spezza · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 15:09STLT.J. OshieAssists: Magnus Paajarvi, Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 19:55STLDavid BackesAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Barret Jackman · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–3
- P3 5:52OTTMilan MichalekAssists: Jason Spezza, Mika Zibanejad · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 7:02OTTKyle TurrisAssists: Erik Karlsson, Jared Cowen · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–3
- P3 8:27OTTJason SpezzaAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Marc Methot · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–3
- P3 11:08STLJordan LeopoldAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Derek Roy · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. STL T.J. Oshie scored
- 2. OTT Mika Zibanejad scored
- 3. STL Alexander Steen scored
- 4. OTT Jason Spezza stopped
- 5. STL Vladimir Tarasenko stopped
- 6. OTT Stephane Da Costa scored
- 7. STL Kevin Shattenkirk stopped
- 8. OTT Milan Michalek stopped
- 9. STL Maxim Lapierre stopped
- 10. OTT Kyle Turris scored
Penalties (13)
- P1 0:36OTTZack Smith: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 0:36STLRyan Reaves: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 17:54OTTClarke MacArthur: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:31STLDerek Roy: Holding2 min
- P2 3:12STLChris Stewart: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:12OTTBobby Ryan: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:14OTTBobby Ryan: Elbowing2 min
- P2 10:19OTTMilan Michalek: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:05OTTMarc Methot: Cross checking2 min
- P2 17:01OTTMika Zibanejad: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:00OTTClarke MacArthur: Misconduct10 min
- P3 13:22OTTEric Gryba: High sticking2 min
- OT 4:04OTTClarke MacArthur: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lapierre won the faceoff against Smith
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestNeil – Greening – Smith10:37
xG 0.63–0.21 (75%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- MacArthur – Ryan – Turris9:57
xG 0.64–0.41 (61%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
- Condra – Conacher – Da Costa4:30
xG 0.11–0.29 (27%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- Spezza – Michalek – Zibanejad9:40
xG 0.49–1.20 (29%)attempts 8–17goals 3–1
Defence pairs
- bestMethot – Gryba15:36
xG 0.77–0.43 (64%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
- Wiercioch – Ceci6:30
xG 0.23–0.19 (55%)attempts 5–8goals 1–1
- Karlsson – Cowen17:02
xG 0.71–1.03 (41%)attempts 17–21goals 2–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Backes – Oshie2:15
xG 0.47–0.13 (78%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Roy – Tarasenko – Schwartz9:42
xG 0.44–0.28 (61%)attempts 12–6goals 1–2
- Oshie – Berglund – Paajarvi7:58
xG 0.35–0.23 (60%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Steen – Backes – Stewart7:15
xG 0.12–0.50 (19%)attempts 6–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Pietrangelo13:13
xG 0.84–0.26 (77%)attempts 16–8goals 1–2
- Jackman – Shattenkirk11:52
xG 0.52–0.27 (66%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
- Bouwmeester – Shattenkirk2:34
xG 0.21–0.02 (91%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).