Tue, Feb 4, 2014·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale
Dallas Stars 3, Phoenix Coyotes 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 013 | 119 | 28 | 340 |
| PHX | 011 | 17 | 010 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 9:18PHXAntoine VermetteUnassisted · Backhand, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 12:32DALShawn HorcoffPPAssists: Tyler Seguin, Rich Peverley · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–1
- P3 3:25DALAntoine RousselGWGAssists: Ryan Garbutt · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 19:33DALRyan GarbuttENAssists: Cody Eakin · Wrist, 0.47 xG3–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:05PHXZbynek Michalek: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:34PHXZbynek Michalek: Interference2 min
- P2 11:02PHXDerek Morris: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 14:49DALRay Whitney: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:48PHXKeith Yandle: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:22DALAntoine Roussel: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hanzal won the faceoff against Fiddler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestFiddler – Roussel – Garbutt11:09
xG 0.70–0.56 (56%)attempts 15–16goals 1–0
- Benn – Seguin – Nichushkin11:43
xG 0.46–0.33 (58%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
- Whitney – Horcoff – Chiasson6:17
xG 0.05–0.28 (16%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Cole – Peverley – Eakin10:53
xG 0.22–0.53 (30%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBenn – Dillon18:00
xG 1.03–0.75 (58%)attempts 18–21goals 0–1
- Gonchar – Rome9:25
xG 0.30–0.62 (32%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
- Daley – Goligoski17:06
xG 0.21–0.62 (26%)attempts 11–18goals 1–0
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestDoan – Vrbata – Hanzal13:01
xG 0.95–0.57 (63%)attempts 20–11goals 0–0
- Doan – Ribeiro – Moss2:32
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Halpern – Chipchura4:05
xG 0.09–0.03 (73%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Moss – Klinkhammer6:34
xG 0.31–0.26 (55%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMorris – Yandle19:58
xG 1.12–0.79 (59%)attempts 29–19goals 0–0
- Schlemko – Murphy7:54
xG 0.37–0.18 (68%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Michalek – Ekman-Larsson14:39
xG 0.23–0.20 (55%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).