Thu, Feb 6, 2014·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Detroit Red Wings 3, Florida Panthers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 011 | 212 | 110 | 333 |
| FLA | 12 | 06 | 016 | 124 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:34FLAScottie UpshallAssists: Tomas Kopecky, Mike Weaver · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 6:30DETDaniel AlfredssonPPAssists: Justin Abdelkader, Niklas Kronwall · Wrist, 0.30 xG1–1
- P2 13:22DETGustav NyquistGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–1
- P3 19:40DETBrian LashoffENAssists: Darren Helm, Niklas Kronwall · Wrist, 0.65 xG3–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 6:02FLAScott Gomez: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:26DETHenrik Zetterberg: Interference2 min
- P1 17:28FLAScottie Upshall: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:36FLABrian Campbell: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 14:01FLATomas Kopecky: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:01FLATomas Kopecky: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 5:02DETDaniel Alfredsson: Interference2 min
- P3 5:30FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:59FLAScott Gomez: High sticking2 min
- P3 17:34DETBrian Lashoff: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zetterberg won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Sheahan – Jurco7:43
xG 0.27–0.09 (74%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Miller – Andersson – Glendening7:55
xG 0.23–0.18 (56%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Alfredsson – Datsyuk – Helm6:50
xG 0.40–0.54 (43%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Abdelkader – Nyquist11:00
xG 0.43–0.64 (40%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSmith – Lashoff9:54
xG 0.61–0.53 (53%)attempts 12–3goals 1–0
- Quincey – DeKeyser11:26
xG 0.13–0.17 (42%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Ericsson – Quincey2:16
xG 0.03–0.17 (14%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBoyes – Bergenheim – Barkov13:53
xG 0.70–0.37 (65%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Gomez – Matthias – Winchester7:00
xG 0.46–0.41 (53%)attempts 2–8goals 0–1
- Kopecky – Goc – Fleischmann9:04
xG 0.21–0.21 (50%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Upshall – Bjugstad – Huberdeau8:36
xG 0.22–0.31 (41%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeaver – Kulikov11:59
xG 0.88–0.41 (68%)attempts 8–10goals 1–1
- Campbell – Gilbert15:32
xG 0.68–0.72 (49%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
- Jovanovski – Gudbranson10:57
xG 0.22–0.27 (44%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).