Thu, Feb 6, 2014·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Boston Bruins 2, St. Louis Blues 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 011 | 013 | 211 | 03 | 238 |
| STL | 19 | 19 | 07 | 12 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:48STLAlexander SteenAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Jay Bouwmeester · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 3:32STLJaden SchwartzAssists: Dmitrij Jaskin, Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P3 9:16BOSDavid KrejciAssists: Jarome Iginla, Milan Lucic · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P3 11:24BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Johnny Boychuk, Torey Krug · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–2
- OT 3:29STLT.J. OshieGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 0:13STLKevin Shattenkirk: Holding2 min
- P1 8:54BOSMatt Bartkowski: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 13:32STLJay Bouwmeester: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:34BOSChris Kelly: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:44STLJay Bouwmeester: Holding2 min
- P2 17:59BOSJohnny Boychuk: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:59STLT.J. Oshie: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:59BOSJohnny Boychuk: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:53STLT.J. Oshie: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:53BOSTorey Krug: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:50STLRoman Polak: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Berglund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Smith9:57
xG 0.82–0.18 (82%)attempts 17–8goals 1–1
- Iginla – Krejci – Lucic10:25
xG 0.50–0.36 (58%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Paille7:14
xG 0.14–0.07 (66%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Kelly – Eriksson – Soderberg8:40
xG 0.16–0.12 (57%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoychuk – Krug11:50
xG 0.91–0.28 (76%)attempts 21–7goals 1–0
- Bartkowski – Hamilton12:53
xG 0.55–0.25 (69%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Bartkowski – Miller3:32
xG 0.01–0.03 (28%)attempts 1–1goals 0–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestRoy – Schwartz – Jaskin6:45
xG 0.08–0.02 (78%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Morrow – Lapierre – Reaves7:38
xG 0.09–0.20 (31%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Steen – Backes – Stewart11:22
xG 0.36–0.56 (39%)attempts 11–15goals 0–1
- Oshie – Berglund – Paajarvi7:19
xG 0.06–0.29 (17%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Leopold – Polak10:42
xG 0.11–0.10 (54%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Jackman – Shattenkirk13:30
xG 0.23–0.38 (38%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo15:02
xG 0.48–1.14 (29%)attempts 13–23goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).