Thu, Feb 6, 2014·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Nashville Predators 2, Minnesota Wild 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 18 | 13 | 06 | 01 | 218 |
| MIN | 29 | 09 | 015 | 13 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:05MINJonas BrodinAssists: Nino Niederreiter · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 5:50NSHCraig SmithAssists: Carter Hutton · Wrist, 0.53 xG1–1
- P1 13:27MINZach ParisePPAssists: Dany Heatley, Jason Pominville · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 7:40NSHCraig SmithAssists: Victor Bartley · Tip-in, 0.04 xG2–2
- OT 2:16MINNino NiederreiterGWGAssists: Kyle Brodziak, Jared Spurgeon · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 12:11NSHRich Clune: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 2:15NSHTaylor Beck: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 15:00NSHVictor Bartley: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:00NSHMike Fisher: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:40MINDany Heatley: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:23MINNino Niederreiter: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:43NSHShea Weber: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Legwand won the faceoff against Granlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestLegwand – Smith – Bourque10:36
xG 0.97–0.03 (97%)attempts 16–4goals 2–0
- Fisher – Nystrom – Hornqvist8:16
xG 0.13–0.07 (65%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- Wilson – Beck – Moser6:44
xG 0.11–0.15 (41%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Cullen – Gaustad – Clune4:36
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Josi19:20
xG 1.13–0.72 (61%)attempts 20–18goals 1–0
- Bartley – Ellis9:13
xG 0.12–0.04 (77%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Del Zotto – Jones12:50
xG 0.09–0.21 (29%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestCooke – Brodziak – Niederreiter8:37
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Mitchell – Haula – Fontaine5:08
xG 0.05–0.09 (37%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Pominville – Parise – Granlund12:37
xG 0.62–0.83 (43%)attempts 14–15goals 0–1
- Heatley – Zucker – Coyle7:22
xG 0.04–0.30 (13%)attempts 4–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestProsser – Brodin10:00
xG 0.47–0.16 (75%)attempts 13–5goals 1–1
- Ballard – Stoner8:52
xG 0.10–0.14 (41%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
- Suter – Brodin5:32
xG 0.37–0.62 (38%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).