Fri, Feb 7, 2014·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
New York Rangers 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 115 | 117 | 18 | 01 | 2 | 441 |
| PIT | 112 | 19 | 18 | 00 | 1 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:04NYRBenoit PouliotAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Marc Staal · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–0
- P1 11:43PITOlli MaattaPPAssists: Sidney Crosby, Jussi Jokinen · Backhand, 0.25 xG1–1
- P2 0:34NYRDan GirardiPPAssists: Derick Brassard · Snap, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 8:29PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: James Neal, Matt Niskanen · Slap, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 9:24NYRBenoit PouliotPPAssists: Dan Girardi, Brad Richards · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–2
- P3 17:04PITJames NealAssists: Olli Maatta, Jayson Megna · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. PIT Jussi Jokinen stopped
- 2. NYR Benoit Pouliot stopped
- 3. PIT Sidney Crosby stopped
- 4. NYR Mats Zuccarello scored
- 5. PIT Evgeni Malkin scored
- 6. NYR Brad Richards scored
Penalties (15)
- P1 10:15NYRCarl Hagelin: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 0:30PITJames Neal: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 5:51PITBrooks Orpik: Interference2 min
- P2 8:11NYRRick Nash: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 13:27NYRRick Nash: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:06NYRCarl Hagelin: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:06PITJames Neal: Diving2 min
- P2 15:10NYRMats Zuccarello: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:10PITChris Kunitz: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:10PITChris Kunitz: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:22PITHarry Zolnierczyk: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:22NYRDominic Moore: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:26NYRRyan McDonagh: Holding2 min
- P3 8:58PITBrooks Orpik: Holding2 min · PPG
- OT 5:00PITEvgeni Malkin: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stepan won the faceoff against Malkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestNash – Stepan – Kreider12:25
xG 0.71–0.23 (76%)attempts 18–4goals 0–0
- Richards – Callahan – Hagelin11:44
xG 0.59–0.26 (69%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Pouliot – Brassard – Zuccarello10:40
xG 0.68–0.42 (62%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- Moore – Boyle – Carcillo6:08
xG 0.18–0.21 (46%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlein – Moore10:46
xG 0.34–0.07 (83%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Staal – Stralman16:53
xG 0.97–0.71 (58%)attempts 21–15goals 1–1
- Girardi – McDonagh16:34
xG 0.53–0.54 (50%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Crosby – Gibbons6:32
xG 0.60–0.19 (76%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Malkin – Neal11:13
xG 0.47–0.63 (43%)attempts 11–17goals 0–0
- Glass – Sutter – Megna8:14
xG 0.05–0.30 (14%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Maatta15:20
xG 0.79–0.65 (55%)attempts 19–16goals 1–0
- Orpik – Martin13:42
xG 0.37–0.48 (43%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
- Scuderi – Bortuzzo10:20
xG 0.15–0.67 (19%)attempts 6–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).