Sat, Feb 8, 2014·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Calgary Flames 1, Philadelphia Flyers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 08 | 011 | 114 | 133 |
| PHI | 011 | 14 | 18 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:04PHIBrayden SchennAssists: Wayne Simmonds, Andrej Meszaros · Snap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P3 4:04PHIScott HartnellGWGAssists: Claude Giroux, Jakub Voracek · Slap, 0.01 xG0–2
- P3 17:34CGYMatt StajanAssists: TJ Galiardi, Joe Colborne · Snap, 0.13 xG1–2
Penalties (6)
- P2 5:06CGYKris Russell: Holding2 min
- P2 10:06PHINicklas Grossmann: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:11CGYBrian McGrattan: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 18:11PHIZac Rinaldo: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 10:23CGYMikael Backlund: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:17PHIBraydon Coburn: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Galiardi won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestCammalleri – Colborne – Monahan6:48
xG 0.67–0.26 (72%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Cammalleri – Stajan – Jones3:49
xG 0.05–0.03 (64%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Stajan – Jones – Bouma6:48
xG 0.11–0.24 (31%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- McGrattan – Westgarth – Galiardi3:09
xG 0.08–0.21 (27%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Brodie12:51
xG 0.95–0.15 (86%)attempts 19–8goals 0–1
- Wideman – Brodie3:55
xG 0.57–0.04 (93%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Russell – Butler12:25
xG 0.60–0.45 (57%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestLecavalier – Simmonds – Schenn12:26
xG 0.74–0.45 (62%)attempts 12–14goals 1–0
- Hall – Rinaldo – Raffl9:25
xG 0.25–0.25 (50%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Downie – Read – Couturier11:02
xG 0.46–0.50 (48%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Hartnell – Giroux – Voracek9:43
xG 0.13–0.87 (13%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestTimonen – Coburn10:22
xG 0.55–0.34 (62%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Streit – Grossmann9:28
xG 0.51–0.45 (54%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
- Streit – Meszaros2:06
xG 0.01–0.03 (24%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).