Sat, Feb 8, 2014·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Vancouver Canucks 1, Toronto Maple Leafs 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 112 | 06 | 015 | 133 |
| TOR | 08 | 05 | 311 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:38VANRyan KeslerAssists: Chris Higgins, Alexander Edler · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P3 7:23TORMason RaymondAssists: Nikolay Kulemin, Troy Bodie · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P3 10:03TORPhil KesselGWGAssists: Tyler Bozak, Tim Gleason · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P3 12:05TORJames van RiemsdykAssists: Phil Kessel, Tyler Bozak · Snap, 0.21 xG1–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:04VANZack Kassian: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 4:10VANKellan Lain: High sticking2 min
- P1 8:24VANAlexander Edler: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:24TORMason Raymond: Diving2 min
- P1 12:46TORNazem Kadri: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:50VANAlexandre Burrows: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:50TORPhil Kessel: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:50VANAlexandre Burrows: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00TORDavid Clarkson: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kulemin won the faceoff against Kesler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Burrows – Schroeder9:15
xG 0.32–0.08 (80%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Higgins – Kesler – Hansen14:54
xG 0.28–0.45 (38%)attempts 15–16goals 1–1
- Richardson – Booth – Kassian7:37
xG 0.04–0.45 (8%)attempts 3–12goals 0–1
- Sestito – Dalpe – Lain4:08
xG 0.05–0.53 (9%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdler – Stanton2:20
xG 0.11–0.01 (89%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Stanton – Corrado9:30
xG 0.05–0.22 (19%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Garrison16:39
xG 0.40–0.58 (41%)attempts 14–19goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestLupul – Clarkson – Kadri9:19
xG 0.54–0.12 (81%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Bodie – Raymond – Kulemin11:15
xG 0.46–0.09 (84%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Kessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak12:54
xG 0.52–0.16 (76%)attempts 19–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestFranson – Gardiner7:22
xG 0.55–0.01 (97%)attempts 11–3goals 1–0
- Ranger – Rielly2:30
xG 0.18–0.05 (80%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Gunnarsson11:39
xG 0.44–0.32 (58%)attempts 13–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).