Sat, Feb 8, 2014·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Montréal Canadiens 4, Carolina Hurricanes 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 010 | 28 | 26 | 424 |
| CAR | 07 | 114 | 011 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:42CARDrayson BowmanAssists: Riley Nash, Justin Faulk · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 17:52MTLDavid DesharnaisAssists: Rene Bourque, Brendan Gallagher · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 19:17MTLRyan WhiteGWGAssists: Andrei Markov · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–1
- P3 6:15MTLDavid DesharnaisAssists: Brendan Gallagher, Nathan Beaulieu · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–1
- P3 17:43MTLBrian GiontaENAssists: Brandon Prust, Ryan White · Wrap-around, 0.66 xG4–1
Penalties (3)
- P1 7:21MTLDale Weise: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:49CARMike Komisarek: Boarding2 min
- P2 12:29MTLDavid Desharnais: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Plekanec won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- Prust – White – Weise5:16
xG 0.04–0.02 (66%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Prust – Eller – Weise3:51
xG 0.01–0.03 (33%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Prust – Bourque – Eller2:57
xG 0.15–0.19 (45%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Gionta – Plekanec – Eller2:04
xG 0.00–0.21 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouillon – Subban4:58
xG 0.41–0.26 (61%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Gorges – Subban12:57
xG 0.44–0.45 (49%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
- Bouillon – Murray3:47
xG 0.09–0.15 (38%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestRuutu – Nash – Bowman10:54
xG 1.19–0.22 (85%)attempts 16–5goals 1–0
- Semin – Staal – Tlusty13:22
xG 1.21–0.44 (73%)attempts 20–13goals 0–1
- Staal – Skinner – Lindholm11:39
xG 0.54–0.12 (82%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Malhotra – Dwyer – Gerbe6:49
xG 0.20–0.30 (40%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Bellemore18:00
xG 1.61–0.28 (85%)attempts 22–10goals 0–0
- Sekera – Faulk15:40
xG 1.42–0.64 (69%)attempts 23–13goals 1–3
- Harrison – Bellemore2:13
xG 0.13–0.09 (58%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).