Sat, Feb 8, 2014·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Colorado Avalanche 5, New York Islanders 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 16 | 29 | 211 | 526 |
| NYI | 013 | 05 | 215 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:04COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Nick Holden · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 7:49COLMatt DucheneAssists: PA Parenteau, Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–0
- P2 10:33COLMatt DucheneGWGAssists: Tyson Barrie, Jamie McGinn · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–0
- P3 11:17NYIJohn TavaresPPAssists: Josh Bailey, Lubomir Visnovsky · Slap, 0.35 xG3–1
- P3 12:14NYILubomir VisnovskyPPAssists: Kyle Okposo, Thomas Vanek · Slap, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 19:13COLGabriel LandeskogENAssists: Andre Benoit · Wrist, 0.58 xG4–2
- P3 19:58COLPaul StastnyENAssists: Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.58 xG5–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 13:51NYIColin McDonald: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:25NYIMichael Grabner: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:02COLMax Talbot: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:01COLMarc-Andre Cliche: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:35COLCody McLeod: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:17COLAndre Benoit: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 10:17COLMax Talbot: Delaying game face off violation2 min · PPG
- P3 12:09COLErik Johnson: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:23NYIThomas Vanek: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- Stastny – Landeskog – MacKinnon10:15
xG 0.68–0.73 (48%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
- Parenteau – O'Reilly – Duchene11:17
xG 0.31–0.44 (41%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Talbot – Mitchell – McGinn10:02
xG 0.58–0.82 (42%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Bordeleau – McLeod – Cliche4:21
xG 0.02–0.31 (7%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Barrie9:24
xG 0.81–0.21 (80%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Hejda – Johnson14:12
xG 0.84–0.44 (65%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Johnson – Holden2:09
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestVanek – Okposo – Tavares14:25
xG 1.44–0.86 (63%)attempts 21–11goals 0–0
- McDonald – Bailey – Nelson9:05
xG 0.37–0.02 (94%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Boulton – Martin – Cizikas3:04
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Clutterbuck – Grabner9:46
xG 0.56–0.79 (41%)attempts 9–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – de Haan12:58
xG 1.46–0.78 (65%)attempts 21–9goals 0–0
- Visnovsky – Hickey12:29
xG 0.78–0.36 (69%)attempts 14–6goals 0–1
- Strait – MacDonald13:39
xG 0.39–1.18 (25%)attempts 6–14goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).