Sat, Feb 8, 2014·Verizon Center, Washington
New Jersey Devils 0, Washington Capitals 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 011 | 08 | 06 | 025 |
| WSH | 06 | 010 | 310 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 10:50WSHJulien BrouilletteGWGAssists: Patrick Wey, Nicklas Backstrom · Snap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P3 18:13WSHMartin EratENAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.56 xG0–2
- P3 18:49WSHTroy BrouwerENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.57 xG0–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:21WSHTroy Brouwer: Tripping2 min
- P1 4:49NJDSteve Bernier: Boarding2 min
- P1 10:10NJDDainius Zubrus: Holding2 min
- P1 13:42WSHTroy Brouwer: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:40NJDRyan Carter: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 12:30NJDStephen Gionta: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 19:18WSHConnor Carrick: High sticking2 min
- P3 19:18WSHConnor Carrick: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Henrique
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestBernier – Gionta – Carter6:49
xG 0.53–0.17 (76%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Ryder – Clowe – Henrique9:16
xG 0.50–0.35 (59%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Zubrus – Loktionov – Brunner5:19
xG 0.17–0.06 (75%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Jagr – Elias – Zajac13:31
xG 0.50–1.16 (30%)attempts 21–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHarrold – Merrill13:06
xG 0.72–0.30 (71%)attempts 19–6goals 0–0
- Salvador – Zidlicky11:48
xG 0.35–0.11 (75%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Fayne – Greene12:59
xG 0.59–0.58 (50%)attempts 14–17goals 0–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestErat – Ovechkin – Backstrom9:14
xG 0.49–0.30 (62%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Laich – Beagle – Wilson4:11
xG 0.63–0.45 (58%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Brouwer – Johansson – Wellman8:46
xG 0.27–0.24 (53%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Chimera – Ward – Fehr7:47
xG 0.34–0.44 (44%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAlzner – Carlson14:23
xG 1.27–0.52 (71%)attempts 13–21goals 0–0
- Wey – Brouillette14:29
xG 0.22–0.53 (29%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Orlov – Carrick16:01
xG 0.48–0.89 (35%)attempts 12–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).