Sat, Feb 8, 2014·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Anaheim Ducks 5, Nashville Predators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 17 | 18 | 39 | 524 |
| NSH | 114 | 013 | 111 | 238 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:35NSHViktor StalbergAssists: Simon Moser, Victor Bartley · Snap, 0.20 xG0–1
- P1 18:49ANARyan GetzlafAssists: Hampus Lindholm, Dustin Penner · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 11:45ANACorey PerryPPAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Cam Fowler · Backhand, 0.15 xG2–1
- P3 1:05NSHMike FisherPPAssists: David Legwand, Patric Hornqvist · Snap, 0.11 xG2–2
- P3 4:51ANAEmerson EtemGWGAssists: Hampus Lindholm, Saku Koivu · Snap, 0.02 xG3–2
- P3 8:04ANAMathieu PerreaultAssists: Daniel Winnik · Tip-in, 0.14 xG4–2
- P3 19:24ANARyan GetzlafENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.45 xG5–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 6:08ANADaniel Winnik: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:19ANABryan Allen: Cross checking2 min
- P2 8:34NSHMike Fisher: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 14:23NSHDavid Legwand: Holding2 min
- P2 17:17ANABryan Allen: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 17:17NSHRich Clune: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:39ANALuca Sbisa: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:48ANACorey Perry: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 15:48NSHPatric Hornqvist: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 0:00NSHRich Clune: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:00NSHRich Clune: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Legwand won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestWinnik – Beleskey – Silfverberg4:43
xG 0.57–0.01 (98%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Penner11:59
xG 0.54–0.17 (76%)attempts 15–5goals 1–0
- Perreault – Maroon – Palmieri8:32
xG 0.24–0.43 (35%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Koivu – Cogliano – Etem7:22
xG 0.09–0.32 (21%)attempts 4–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLovejoy – Fowler13:35
xG 0.65–0.20 (77%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Allen – Sbisa11:53
xG 0.69–0.38 (64%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Lindholm15:50
xG 0.33–0.66 (33%)attempts 14–18goals 3–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestStalberg – Wilson – Moser9:36
xG 0.71–0.24 (75%)attempts 12–5goals 1–1
- Legwand – Smith – Bourque8:35
xG 0.27–0.02 (93%)attempts 15–1goals 0–0
- Gaustad – Clune – Sissons5:53
xG 0.02–0.10 (19%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Fisher – Nystrom – Hornqvist9:57
xG 0.09–0.55 (14%)attempts 6–15goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestBartley – Ellis11:37
xG 0.79–0.38 (68%)attempts 12–6goals 1–1
- Del Zotto – Jones13:05
xG 0.44–0.24 (65%)attempts 19–8goals 0–1
- Weber – Josi15:49
xG 0.15–1.06 (13%)attempts 11–22goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).