Sat, Feb 8, 2014·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Phoenix Coyotes 1, Dallas Stars 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 04 | 010 | 113 | 127 |
| DAL | 17 | 114 | 012 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:10DALRay WhitneyAssists: Jordie Benn, Brenden Dillon · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 19:26DALValeri NichushkinGWGAssists: Trevor Daley, Jamie Benn · Snap, 0.05 xG0–2
- P3 19:44PHXRadim VrbataPPAssists: Antoine Vermette, Keith Yandle · Snap, 0.02 xG1–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:48DALKevin Connauton: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:45PHXMartin Hanzal: Cross checking2 min
- P2 1:38DALVernon Fiddler: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:44PHXDavid Moss: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:24DALShawn Horcoff: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:21PHXShane Doan: Interference2 min
- P3 9:21PHXMike Ribeiro: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 17:12PHXShane Doan: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:22DALSergei Gonchar: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eakin won the faceoff against Chipchura
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestVrbata – Korpikoski – Hanzal2:22
xG 0.38–0.23 (62%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- Doan – Ribeiro – Moss2:31
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Vermette – Korpikoski – Boedker7:20
xG 0.11–0.14 (45%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Halpern – Moss – Chipchura5:37
xG 0.17–0.24 (42%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Yandle – Stone13:09
xG 0.75–0.84 (47%)attempts 13–14goals 0–1
- Schlemko – Murphy8:31
xG 0.19–0.35 (35%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Michalek – Ekman-Larsson13:22
xG 0.10–0.56 (15%)attempts 4–18goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestWhitney – Horcoff – Chiasson7:53
xG 0.41–0.03 (92%)attempts 8–1goals 1–0
- Cole – Peverley – Eakin8:20
xG 0.34–0.08 (81%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Fiddler – Roussel – Garbutt8:09
xG 0.44–0.23 (66%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Benn – Seguin – Nichushkin10:46
xG 0.67–0.48 (58%)attempts 19–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGonchar – Connauton11:29
xG 0.75–0.17 (82%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- Daley – Goligoski14:03
xG 0.45–0.48 (49%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Benn – Dillon12:15
xG 0.42–0.45 (48%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).