Wed, Feb 26, 2014·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Boston Bruins 4, Buffalo Sabres 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 17 | 218 | 17 | 01 | 433 |
| BUF | 17 | 211 | 17 | 11 | 526 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:32BUFZemgus GirgensonsAssists: Brian Flynn, Jamie McBain · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 10:47BOSChris KellyAssists: Carl Soderberg, Matt Bartkowski · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 6:25BUFTyler MyersPPAssists: Cody Hodgson, Christian Ehrhoff · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–2
- P2 9:10BUFBrian FlynnAssists: Ville Leino, Jamie McBain · Snap, 0.09 xG1–3
- P2 11:01BOSZdeno CharaPPAssists: Milan Lucic, Torey Krug · Wrist, 0.39 xG2–3
- P2 17:46BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Reilly Smith · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–3
- P3 9:43BOSMilan LucicPPAssists: Torey Krug, Jarome Iginla · Slap, 0.05 xG4–3
- P3 19:07BUFMatt MoulsonAssists: Zemgus Girgensons, Ville Leino · Wrist, 0.20 xG4–4
- OT 0:22BUFMatt D'AgostiniGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.17 xG4–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:16BOSCarl Soderberg: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 5:19BUFJohn Scott: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:53BOSJohnny Boychuk: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:26BOSBrad Marchand: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 6:58BOSMilan Lucic: Boarding2 min
- P2 9:44BUFZemgus Girgensons: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:56BOSCarl Soderberg: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:00BUFMarcus Foligno: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 0:00BOSKevan Miller: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 9:11BUFMatt Moulson: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Ott
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKelly – Eriksson – Soderberg7:36
xG 0.41–0.03 (94%)attempts 10–1goals 1–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Smith10:35
xG 0.35–0.20 (64%)attempts 13–4goals 1–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Paille5:25
xG 0.04–0.04 (49%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Iginla – Krejci – Lucic11:55
xG 0.11–0.60 (16%)attempts 8–7goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestBoychuk – Bartkowski14:17
xG 0.57–0.12 (83%)attempts 16–6goals 2–0
- Miller – Krug8:45
xG 0.42–0.24 (64%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
- Chara – Hamilton13:36
xG 0.18–0.33 (35%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestMoulson – Stafford – Leino9:00
xG 0.38–0.13 (74%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Foligno – Flynn – Girgensons8:10
xG 0.32–0.34 (48%)attempts 3–10goals 1–0
- Ott – D'Agostini – Hodgson8:32
xG 0.07–0.11 (38%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestTallinder – Weber2:53
xG 0.13–0.02 (86%)attempts 1–1goals 1–0
- Weber – Myers9:23
xG 0.24–0.15 (61%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Tallinder – McBain9:28
xG 0.13–0.23 (37%)attempts 1–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).