Wed, Feb 26, 2014·Centre Bell, Montreal
Detroit Red Wings 2, Montréal Canadiens 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 18 | 09 | 09 | 14 | 230 |
| MTL | 07 | 02 | 18 | 03 | 120 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:01DETTodd BertuzziPPAssists: Johan Franzen, Daniel Alfredsson · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–0
- P3 19:31MTLBrian GiontaAssists: Daniel Brière, Andrei Markov · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–1
- OT 4:32DETGustav NyquistGWGAssists: Johan Franzen, Danny DeKeyser · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 11:14DETNiklas Kronwall: Holding2 min
- P1 13:00MTLP.K. Subban: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 18:28DETBrian Lashoff: Hooking2 min
- OT 1:51DETTomas Tatar: Hooking2 min
- OT 1:51MTLP.K. Subban: Diving2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Helm won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Andersson – Nyquist9:42
xG 0.55–0.22 (71%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Tatar – Sheahan – Jurco11:16
xG 0.47–0.31 (61%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Datsyuk – Franzen – Nyquist2:37
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Datsyuk – Franzen9:32
xG 0.14–0.12 (53%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSmith – Lashoff11:41
xG 0.61–0.24 (72%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Ericsson18:56
xG 0.52–0.41 (56%)attempts 18–13goals 0–0
- Quincey – DeKeyser18:18
xG 0.06–0.38 (14%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestDesharnais – Pacioretty – Gallagher15:35
xG 0.62–0.17 (79%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
- Bourque – Eller – Weise2:07
xG 0.03–0.04 (48%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Brière – Gionta – Plekanec8:46
xG 0.15–0.16 (48%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Gionta – Plekanec – Galchenyuk5:22
xG 0.05–0.13 (27%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMarkov – Emelin17:28
xG 0.47–0.30 (61%)attempts 10–19goals 0–0
- Murray – Emelin2:00
xG 0.08–0.13 (39%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Murray – Tinordi10:43
xG 0.09–0.25 (27%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).