Wed, Feb 26, 2014·Pepsi Center, Denver
Los Angeles Kings 6, Colorado Avalanche 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 17 | 312 | 29 | 628 |
| COL | 28 | 210 | 011 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:48LAKRobyn RegehrAssists: Anze Kopitar, Tyler Toffoli · Slap, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 11:17COLRyan O'ReillyPPAssists: Nick Holden, Jamie McGinn · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–1
- P1 16:32COLPA ParenteauAssists: Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–2
- P2 0:24LAKJarret StollAssists: Dustin Brown, Dwight King · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–2
- P2 8:57COLJamie McGinnPPAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–3
- P2 15:42COLAndre BenoitPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Paul Stastny · Deflected, 0.27 xG2–4
- P2 16:49LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Justin Williams, Slava Voynov · Backhand, 0.08 xG3–4
- P2 18:53LAKJeff CarterAssists: Mike Richards, Matt Greene · Tip-in, 0.11 xG4–4
- P3 3:13LAKAnze KopitarPPGWGAssists: Jeff Carter, Tyler Toffoli · Wrist, 0.17 xG5–4
- P3 19:48LAKJustin WilliamsENAssists: Drew Doughty · Wrist, 0.65 xG6–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 9:29LAKRobyn Regehr: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 16:46COLGabriel Landeskog: Holding2 min
- P2 1:11LAKJustin Williams: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:23LAKJeff Carter: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 14:02LAKDustin Brown: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P2 19:34COLCody McLeod: Interference2 min
- P3 1:45COLNick Holden: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P3 16:36LAKMatt Greene: Kneeing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stoll won the faceoff against Mitchell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- Lewis – Vey – Nolan7:06
xG 0.04–0.02 (62%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Carter – Richards – Pearson8:24
xG 0.22–0.34 (39%)attempts 6–8goals 1–1
- Williams – Kopitar – Toffoli9:45
xG 0.08–0.27 (22%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Stoll – Brown – King11:10
xG 0.34–0.74 (31%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Mitchell – Doughty2:17
xG 0.11–0.07 (61%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Regehr – Voynov12:13
xG 0.59–0.59 (50%)attempts 14–10goals 3–0
- Muzzin – Doughty13:30
xG 0.05–0.29 (15%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestParenteau – O'Reilly – Duchene11:41
xG 0.82–0.13 (86%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Stastny – Landeskog – MacKinnon9:52
xG 0.19–0.17 (52%)attempts 6–11goals 0–2
- Mitchell – McLeod – Cliche3:05
xG 0.07–0.11 (40%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Mitchell – McLeod – McGinn5:46
xG 0.06–0.24 (19%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGuenin – Barrie2:08
xG 0.41–0.02 (96%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Hejda – Holden8:34
xG 0.41–0.07 (85%)attempts 7–10goals 1–1
- Sarich – Benoit4:15
xG 0.18–0.08 (70%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).