Thu, Feb 27, 2014·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, New York Islanders 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 17 | 08 | 37 | 00 | 422 |
| NYI | 211 | 05 | 215 | 14 | 535 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:53TORPhil KesselAssists: Tyler Bozak, James van Riemsdyk · Snap, 0.26 xG1–0
- P1 15:53NYIMichael GrabnerSHAssists: Casey Cizikas · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–1
- P1 16:41NYIMichael GrabnerSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P3 8:50TORPaul RangerAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Phil Kessel · Wrist, 0.28 xG2–2
- P3 11:26TORDion PhaneufAssists: Tyler Bozak, James van Riemsdyk · Snap, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 12:52NYIAnders LeePPAssists: Josh Bailey, Calvin de Haan · Backhand, 0.15 xG3–3
- P3 13:54TORJoffrey LupulAssists: Nazem Kadri, Carl Gunnarsson · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–3
- P3 17:20NYIAnders LeeAssists: Ryan Strome, Travis Hamonic · Tip-in, 0.37 xG4–4
- OT 1:55NYILubomir VisnovskyGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.13 xG4–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 12:46TORDion Phaneuf: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:42NYIEric Boulton: Holding2 min
- P1 18:56NYITravis Hamonic: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:57NYIJosh Bailey: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:04NYIEric Boulton: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:04TORTim Gleason: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:06TORJake Gardiner: Holding2 min
- P2 14:33NYICasey Cizikas: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:38TORDion Phaneuf: Broken stick2 min
- P3 12:08TORCarl Gunnarsson: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Bailey
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak13:46
xG 1.07–0.57 (65%)attempts 11–12goals 3–0
- Bodie – Raymond – Kulemin6:06
xG 0.34–0.43 (44%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Lupul – Clarkson – Kadri10:35
xG 0.26–0.72 (26%)attempts 8–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestRanger – Rielly3:18
xG 0.54–0.18 (75%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- Phaneuf – Gunnarsson11:37
xG 0.97–0.85 (53%)attempts 12–8goals 3–1
- Gleason – Rielly6:25
xG 0.29–0.30 (50%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBoulton – Cizikas – Halmo5:02
xG 0.46–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- McDonald – Lee – Strome7:58
xG 0.49–0.44 (53%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Grabner – Bailey10:16
xG 0.65–0.75 (46%)attempts 10–11goals 0–2
- Vanek – Okposo – Nelson12:33
xG 0.63–0.88 (42%)attempts 8–12goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestVisnovsky – Hickey11:10
xG 1.04–0.63 (62%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
- Visnovsky – MacDonald2:55
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Hamonic – de Haan14:54
xG 0.78–0.58 (57%)attempts 8–10goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).