Thu, Feb 27, 2014·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
San Jose Sharks 7, Philadelphia Flyers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 15 | 516 | 18 | 729 |
| PHI | 210 | 08 | 112 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:25SJSRaffi TorresAssists: Andrew Desjardins, Jason Demers · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 10:36PHIAndrej MeszarosAssists: Steve Downie, Matt Read · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–1
- P1 10:58PHIBrayden SchennAssists: Vincent Lecavalier, Wayne Simmonds · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 4:23SJSJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Patrick Marleau, Dan Boyle · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–2
- P2 10:12SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Marc-Edouard Vlasic · Tip-in, 0.07 xG3–2
- P2 10:47SJSLogan CoutureGWGAssists: Patrick Marleau, Jason Demers · Snap, 0.41 xG4–2
- P2 14:10SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Matt Irwin, Joe Thornton · Snap, 0.12 xG5–2
- P2 19:57SJSRaffi TorresAssists: Mike Brown, Andrew Desjardins · Wrist, 0.30 xG6–2
- P3 4:50SJSLogan CoutureSHAssists: Tommy Wingels · Backhand, 0.16 xG7–2
- P3 12:12PHIMatt ReadAssists: Sean Couturier, Nicklas Grossmann · Tip-in, 0.10 xG7–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 4:44PHIMark Streit: High sticking2 min
- P1 18:24SJSAdam Burish: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:07SJSDan Boyle: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:48PHIMichael Raffl: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 11:19SJSScott Hannan: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:53PHIScott Hartnell: Delaying game2 min
- P3 4:05SJSMatt Irwin: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:45PHISteve Downie: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:30SJSJustin Braun: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:47PHIScott Hartnell: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:47PHIScott Hartnell: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Havlat – Couture9:04
xG 0.75–0.18 (80%)attempts 10–6goals 1–1
- Torres – Brown – Desjardins6:37
xG 0.64–0.49 (57%)attempts 9–6goals 2–1
- Burish – Wingels – Nieto10:05
xG 0.48–0.57 (46%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHannan – Demers12:17
xG 1.28–0.66 (66%)attempts 18–11goals 2–3
- Boyle – Vlasic8:05
xG 0.68–0.06 (91%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Braun – Irwin7:33
xG 0.03–0.60 (4%)attempts 1–10goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- Hartnell – Giroux – Voracek11:34
xG 0.62–0.61 (50%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Downie – Read – Couturier9:26
xG 0.20–0.23 (46%)attempts 8–8goals 1–1
- Hall – Rinaldo – Raffl4:40
xG 0.07–0.24 (22%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
- Lecavalier – Simmonds – Schenn9:58
xG 0.27–0.62 (30%)attempts 5–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestCoburn – Grossmann12:49
xG 0.61–0.19 (77%)attempts 12–7goals 1–1
- Streit – Meszaros11:20
xG 0.38–0.76 (33%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
- Schenn – Gustafsson15:18
xG 0.30–1.22 (20%)attempts 8–17goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).