Thu, Feb 27, 2014·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Carolina Hurricanes 1, Dallas Stars 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 011 | 07 | 112 | 130 |
| DAL | 211 | 111 | 112 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:18DALTyler SeguinAssists: Valeri Nichushkin, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 6:13DALBrenden DillonSHGWGAssists: Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
- P2 18:35DALJamie BennSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–3
- P3 2:42CAREric StaalAssists: Jiri Tlusty, Andrej Sekera · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–3
- P3 19:04DALCody EakinENAssists: Shawn Horcoff, Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.62 xG1–4
Penalties (19)
- P1 4:57DALCody Eakin: Delaying game2 min
- P1 8:54CARJohn-Michael Liles: High sticking2 min
- P1 15:19CARJustin Faulk: Interference2 min
- P2 0:40CAREric Staal: Cross checking2 min
- P2 7:58DALJamie Benn: Interference2 min
- P2 13:35CARPatrick Dwyer: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:46DALRay Whitney: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:40DALJordie Benn: Delaying game2 min
- P3 5:36DALAntoine Roussel: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:36CARRon Hainsey: Instigator2 min
- P3 5:36CARRon Hainsey: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:36CARRon Hainsey: Misconduct10 min
- P3 5:36DALAntoine Roussel: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 5:36DALAntoine Roussel: Charging5 min
- P3 6:40CARTuomo Ruutu: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:27CARJiri Tlusty: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 8:27DALRyan Garbutt: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 13:44CARJordan Staal: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 15:40CARRiley Nash: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Seguin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestDwyer – Gerbe – Staal4:04
xG 0.24–0.07 (78%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
- Semin – Staal – Tlusty3:01
xG 0.10–0.03 (79%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Staal – Tlusty – Lindholm4:02
xG 0.23–0.17 (57%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Ruutu – Nash – Skinner5:48
xG 0.08–0.23 (26%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Liles10:39
xG 1.08–0.15 (88%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Harrison – Bellemore8:57
xG 0.33–0.27 (55%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Liles – Harrison2:10
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Seguin – Nichushkin5:56
xG 0.42–0.09 (83%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Whitney – Horcoff – Chiasson4:52
xG 0.24–0.04 (87%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Fiddler – Roussel – Garbutt5:06
xG 0.09–0.10 (47%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Cole – Peverley – Eakin6:59
xG 0.10–0.72 (12%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBenn – Dillon11:09
xG 0.52–0.39 (57%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Daley – Goligoski9:22
xG 0.43–0.55 (44%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Gonchar – Connauton9:05
xG 0.26–0.77 (25%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).