Thu, Feb 27, 2014·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Minnesota Wild 3, Edmonton Oilers 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 16 | 110 | 15 | 321 |
| EDM | 06 | 010 | 05 | 021 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:04MINMikael GranlundGWGAssists: Zach Parise, Jared Spurgeon · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 9:37MINStephane VeilleuxAssists: Erik Haula, Nate Prosser · Slap, 0.05 xG2–0
- P3 9:29MINDany HeatleyAssists: Charlie Coyle, Nino Niederreiter · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–0
Penalties (14)
- P1 0:54MINKyle Brodziak: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:54EDMMatt Hendricks: Roughing2 min
- P1 7:00MINKeith Ballard: Roughing2 min
- P1 7:00EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Cross checking2 min
- P1 7:00EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:01MINKyle Brodziak: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:09MINNino Niederreiter: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:22EDMLuke Gazdic: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:22MINClayton Stoner: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:40MINErik Haula: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 9:45EDMMatt Hendricks: Boarding2 min
- P3 9:45EDMMatt Hendricks: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:45MINClayton Stoner: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:52MINKeith Ballard: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Granlund won the faceoff against Gordon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestCooke – Brodziak – Fontaine5:37
xG 0.27–0.04 (87%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Pominville – Parise – Granlund11:58
xG 0.29–0.06 (83%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Veilleux – Mitchell – Haula4:46
xG 0.10–0.06 (62%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Cooke – Brodziak – Niederreiter3:18
xG 0.05–0.05 (51%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBallard – Stoner8:43
xG 0.36–0.12 (75%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Suter – Brodin6:00
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Prosser – Brodin8:09
xG 0.12–0.04 (75%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- Smyth – Hendricks – Gordon2:21
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Gordon – Perron5:07
xG 0.05–0.08 (40%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Hemsky – Gagner – Hall2:32
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Hemsky – Gagner – Eberle7:12
xG 0.10–0.17 (36%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Belov3:24
xG 0.53–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Petry – Marincin13:21
xG 0.11–0.14 (44%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Ference – Belov9:13
xG 0.20–0.37 (35%)attempts 6–11goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).