Sat, Mar 1, 2014·TD Garden, Boston
Washington Capitals 4, Boston Bruins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 113 | 28 | 110 | 431 |
| BOS | 07 | 215 | 016 | 238 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:39WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: John Carlson, Nicklas Backstrom · Slap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 2:24WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Marcus Johansson, Joel Ward · Slap, 0.04 xG2–0
- P2 10:13WSHJoel WardGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.20 xG3–0
- P2 10:54BOSPatrice BergeronPPAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Reilly Smith · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–1
- P2 17:32BOSGregory CampbellAssists: Shawn Thornton, Daniel Paille · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 10:53WSHEric FehrAssists: Jason Chimera · Snap, 0.22 xG4–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 4:13BOSCarl Soderberg: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 6:57WSHJay Beagle: Holding2 min
- P1 6:57WSHTom Wilson: High sticking2 min
- P1 18:12BOSChris Kelly: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 0:47BOSMatt Bartkowski: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 10:37WSHJason Chimera: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 14:11WSHEric Fehr: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:24BOSBrad Marchand: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:29WSHNicklas Backstrom: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:04BOSBrad Marchand: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:06BOSCarl Soderberg: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fehr won the faceoff against Soderberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Ward – Fehr10:48
xG 0.91–0.24 (79%)attempts 9–10goals 2–0
- Brouwer – Johansson – Wellman8:46
xG 0.12–0.19 (39%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Laich – Ovechkin – Backstrom6:59
xG 0.07–0.16 (29%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
- Beagle – Deschamps – Wilson4:36
xG 0.08–0.33 (20%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreen – Orlov15:09
xG 0.55–0.41 (57%)attempts 11–15goals 0–1
- Alzner – Carlson11:29
xG 0.37–0.23 (61%)attempts 6–12goals 1–0
- Erskine – Carrick13:40
xG 0.32–0.41 (44%)attempts 4–13goals 1–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Campbell – Paille7:32
xG 0.46–0.15 (75%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Smith9:26
xG 0.31–0.33 (49%)attempts 14–4goals 0–1
- Kelly – Eriksson – Soderberg8:56
xG 0.17–0.23 (42%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Iginla – Krejci – Lucic10:41
xG 0.22–0.39 (36%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBartkowski – Miller3:23
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Chara – Hamilton10:52
xG 0.16–0.05 (78%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Bartkowski – Hamilton4:12
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).