Sat, Mar 1, 2014·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
New Jersey Devils 6, New York Islanders 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 18 | 411 | 116 | 635 |
| NYI | 010 | 13 | 06 | 119 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:00NJDAdam HenriquePPAssists: Ryane Clowe, Michael Ryder · Backhand, 0.46 xG1–0
- P2 3:31NJDJaromir JagrGWGAssists: Travis Zajac, Andy Greene · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–0
- P2 4:40NJDRyane ClowePPAssists: Adam Henrique, Eric Gelinas · Snap, 0.13 xG3–0
- P2 6:14NYIKyle OkposoAssists: Thomas Vanek, Josh Bailey · Tip-in, 0.18 xG3–1
- P2 8:07NJDMarek ZidlickyPPAssists: Jaromir Jagr, Patrik Elias · Slap, 0.04 xG4–1
- P2 14:54NJDMark FayneAssists: Andrei Loktionov · Slap, 0.02 xG5–1
- P3 19:21NJDEric GelinasPPAssists: Marek Zidlicky, Patrik Elias · Slap, 0.10 xG6–1
Penalties (18)
- P1 3:32NYICasey Cizikas: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 13:40NJDRyan Carter: Holding2 min
- P1 14:40NYIThomas Vanek: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:30NYIColin McDonald: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 7:53NYIMike Halmo: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 8:17NJDDainius Zubrus: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:12NYICal Clutterbuck: Charging2 min
- P2 15:12NYIJosh Bailey: Misconduct10 min
- P3 5:42NYITravis Hamonic: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:42NJDSteve Bernier: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:55NJDAndrei Loktionov: Delaying game2 min
- P3 12:19NYIMike Halmo: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 15:23NYITravis Hamonic: Instigator2 min
- P3 15:23NYITravis Hamonic: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P3 15:23NYITravis Hamonic: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 15:23NYITravis Hamonic: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:26NYIEric Boulton: Cross checking2 min
- P3 18:26NYIEric Boulton: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nelson won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestRyder – Clowe – Loktionov8:42
xG 0.87–0.04 (96%)attempts 13–1goals 1–0
- Jagr – Zubrus – Zajac11:29
xG 0.31–0.05 (87%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Elias – Bernier – Henrique7:17
xG 0.02–0.25 (6%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Gionta – Carter – Josefson7:16
xG 0.03–0.55 (4%)attempts 1–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVolchenkov – Fayne4:02
xG 0.43–0.04 (91%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Fayne – Greene9:46
xG 0.28–0.06 (83%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Volchenkov – Zidlicky9:41
xG 0.66–0.44 (60%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBoulton – Cizikas – Halmo6:34
xG 0.61–0.19 (77%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Grabner – Bailey6:39
xG 0.16–0.11 (59%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Vanek – Okposo – Strome2:04
xG 0.11–0.17 (41%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Vanek – Okposo – Nelson9:33
xG 0.06–0.28 (18%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Visnovsky – Hickey13:46
xG 0.59–0.56 (52%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Hamonic – de Haan11:59
xG 0.32–0.33 (49%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Strait – MacDonald11:21
xG 0.18–0.78 (18%)attempts 6–13goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).