Sat, Mar 1, 2014·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Florida Panthers 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 15 | 29 | 06 | 320 |
| CBJ | 212 | 213 | 212 | 637 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:42CBJR.J. UmbergerPPAssists: James Wisniewski, Jack Johnson · Wrist, 0.43 xG0–1
- P1 11:04CBJCam AtkinsonPPAssists: David Savard, Jack Johnson · Tip-in, 0.06 xG0–2
- P1 13:50FLAShawn MatthiasUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 6:54FLANick BjugstadAssists: Shawn Matthias · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 10:50CBJDavid SavardPPAssists: Nathan Horton, Ryan Johansen · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–3
- P2 11:30FLASean BergenheimAssists: Tom Gilbert, Nick Bjugstad · Tip-in, 0.12 xG3–3
- P2 19:50CBJArtem AnisimovSHGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–4
- P3 18:59CBJNick FolignoENAssists: Brandon Dubinsky, Ryan Murray · Wrist, 0.58 xG3–5
- P3 19:23CBJMatt CalvertENAssists: Mark Letestu, Jack Johnson · Wrist, 0.60 xG3–6
Penalties (10)
- P1 6:20FLAErik Gudbranson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 9:05FLAScott Gomez: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 14:17CBJNathan Horton: Holding2 min
- P2 9:15FLAErik Gudbranson: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:22CBJArtem Anisimov: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:19CBJDerek MacKenzie: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:19FLADmitry Kulikov: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:19CBJDerek MacKenzie: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:55FLABrad Boyes: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:33CBJNick Foligno: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKenzie won the faceoff against Goc
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBoyes – Bergenheim – Bjugstad10:16
xG 0.61–0.37 (63%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Upshall – Shore – Huberdeau7:33
xG 0.32–0.26 (55%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Gomez – Matthias – Hayes7:45
xG 0.21–0.37 (36%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Goc – Fleischmann – Winchester8:01
xG 0.14–0.33 (30%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Gilbert17:05
xG 0.80–0.27 (75%)attempts 15–10goals 2–0
- Olsen – Gudbranson4:21
xG 0.08–0.11 (42%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Jovanovski – Gudbranson9:07
xG 0.29–0.51 (37%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestMacKenzie – Letestu – Calvert7:23
xG 0.42–0.07 (87%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Horton – Johansen – Jenner10:45
xG 0.42–0.21 (67%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Umberger – Dubinsky – Atkinson7:41
xG 0.12–0.17 (41%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Gaborik – Foligno – Anisimov6:26
xG 0.16–0.23 (42%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestNikitin – Prout12:07
xG 0.67–0.09 (88%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Johnson – Savard14:33
xG 0.51–0.46 (53%)attempts 9–13goals 0–1
- Wisniewski – Murray16:20
xG 0.43–0.83 (34%)attempts 12–18goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).