Sat, Mar 1, 2014·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Winnipeg Jets 3, Nashville Predators 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 08 | 28 | 14 | 320 |
| NSH | 014 | 015 | 111 | 140 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:02WPGOlli JokinenAssists: Evander Kane, Jacob Trouba · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 18:18WPGAndrew LaddGWGAssists: Zach Bogosian, Michael Frolik · Tip-in, 0.01 xG2–0
- P3 9:11NSHSimon MoserAssists: Michael Del Zotto, Mike Fisher · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–1
- P3 16:08WPGDevin SetoguchiAssists: Blake Wheeler, Mark Stuart · Snap, 0.19 xG3–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:47WPGToby Enstrom: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:30NSHMike Fisher: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:28WPGToby Enstrom: Interference2 min
- P1 18:51WPGAdam Pardy: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:06NSHRich Clune: Delaying game2 min
- P2 10:06WPGMark Stuart: Delaying game2 min
- P2 10:06WPGMark Stuart: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:36WPGDustin Byfuglien: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 19:21WPGJacob Trouba: Delaying game smothering puck2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against Fisher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Setoguchi – Scheifele9:28
xG 0.28–0.12 (70%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Thorburn – Slater – Wright2:30
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Kane – Scheifele2:06
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Ladd – Little – Frolik9:43
xG 0.07–0.44 (14%)attempts 5–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Enstrom – Bogosian9:29
xG 0.20–0.23 (46%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Pardy – Ellerby4:53
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Stuart – Trouba10:30
xG 0.32–0.46 (41%)attempts 6–13goals 2–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestLegwand – Smith – Bourque9:23
xG 0.52–0.03 (95%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Cullen – Fisher – Hornqvist7:53
xG 0.25–0.08 (76%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Fisher – Hornqvist – Moser2:19
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 1–0
- Gaustad – Clune – Moser3:39
xG 0.10–0.02 (84%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Josi16:37
xG 0.78–0.36 (68%)attempts 19–9goals 0–1
- Del Zotto – Ellis11:49
xG 0.38–0.20 (65%)attempts 15–7goals 1–1
- Ekholm – Jones12:24
xG 0.22–0.17 (56%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).