Sat, Mar 1, 2014·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Carolina Hurricanes 1, Los Angeles Kings 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 18 | 08 | 09 | 125 |
| LAK | 110 | 011 | 210 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:04LAKMike RichardsAssists: Robyn Regehr · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 19:45CARAndrej SekeraAssists: Riley Nash, Patrick Dwyer · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
- P3 8:15LAKAlec MartinezPPGWGAssists: Dustin Brown, Justin Williams · Slap, 0.35 xG1–2
- P3 18:59LAKJustin WilliamsENAssists: Anze Kopitar, Trevor Lewis · Wrist, 0.58 xG1–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 1:49CARMike Komisarek: Boarding2 min
- P1 2:10LAKTyler Toffoli: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:03CARMike Komisarek: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:14CARJordan Staal: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:14LAKSlava Voynov: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:05CARRon Hainsey: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:18CARJiri Tlusty: Boarding2 min
- P2 6:47LAKRobyn Regehr: Boarding2 min
- P2 11:05CARMike Komisarek: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:25CARJiri Tlusty: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 9:56LAKKyle Clifford: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stoll won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestDwyer – Nash – Bowman7:10
xG 0.31–0.18 (63%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
- Ruutu – Nash – Skinner2:11
xG 0.08–0.16 (33%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Staal – Tlusty – Lindholm11:07
xG 0.24–0.36 (40%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Ruutu – Staal – Skinner8:22
xG 0.29–0.58 (34%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Bellemore12:03
xG 0.63–0.18 (78%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
- Hainsey – Liles4:33
xG 0.16–0.11 (59%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Sekera – Faulk14:42
xG 0.51–0.72 (41%)attempts 15–14goals 1–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestStoll – Brown – King7:37
xG 0.48–0.14 (78%)attempts 11–2goals 0–1
- Carter – Richards – Pearson8:00
xG 0.40–0.27 (60%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Williams – Kopitar – Toffoli6:56
xG 0.14–0.25 (36%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Lewis – Clifford – Vey8:27
xG 0.11–0.24 (31%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMitchell – Martinez9:15
xG 0.41–0.09 (82%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Regehr – Voynov14:57
xG 0.86–0.60 (59%)attempts 13–16goals 1–1
- Muzzin – Doughty10:26
xG 0.53–0.51 (51%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).