Sat, Mar 1, 2014·Soldier Field, ChicagoOutdoor game
Pittsburgh Penguins 1, Chicago Blackhawks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 05 | 013 | 114 | 132 |
| CHI | 114 | 217 | 29 | 540 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:35CHIPatrick SharpAssists: Jonathan Toews, Nick Leddy · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 10:47CHIJonathan ToewsGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 16:43CHIKris VersteegAssists: Patrick Kane, Michal Handzus · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–3
- P3 6:21PITJames NealUnassisted · Backhand, 0.23 xG1–3
- P3 13:57CHIBryan BickellAssists: Brandon Saad, Michal Rozsival · Backhand, 0.04 xG1–4
- P3 17:52CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Patrick Sharp · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 4:12PITSimon Despres: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:48PITTanner Glass: Boarding2 min
- P1 17:46CHIJohnny Oduya: Holding2 min
- P2 2:03PITSimon Despres: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:56CHIDuncan Keith: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 6:50PITChris Kunitz: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:09CHIJohnny Oduya: Interference2 min
- P2 11:38CHIDuncan Keith: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:42CHIMichal Rozsival: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:29CHIMarcus Kruger: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Malkin – Neal11:13
xG 0.46–0.23 (66%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Pyatt – Glass – Sutter4:32
xG 0.10–0.02 (86%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Crosby – Gibbons5:28
xG 0.20–0.33 (37%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Maatta12:06
xG 0.41–0.16 (72%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Orpik – Bortuzzo2:07
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Bortuzzo – Despres6:05
xG 0.14–0.15 (47%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHandzus – Versteeg – Kane8:48
xG 0.76–0.25 (75%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Sharp – Toews – Saad5:40
xG 0.48–0.11 (81%)attempts 7–8goals 3–0
- Smith – Kruger – Bollig10:19
xG 0.26–0.05 (84%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Sharp – Toews – Kane2:36
xG 0.22–0.05 (80%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRozsival – Leddy11:33
xG 0.56–0.11 (83%)attempts 11–5goals 3–0
- Keith – Seabrook13:15
xG 1.05–0.73 (59%)attempts 17–19goals 2–1
- Oduya – Hjalmarsson14:01
xG 0.34–0.13 (73%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).