Sat, Mar 1, 2014·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Calgary Flames 2, Edmonton Oilers 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 111 | 03 | 013 | 13 | 230 |
| EDM | 09 | 06 | 17 | 00 | 122 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:15CGYSean MonahanAssists: Joe Colborne, Mark Giordano · Snap, 0.30 xG1–0
- P3 9:43EDMDavid PerronAssists: Jordan Eberle, Sam Gagner · Snap, 0.04 xG1–1
- OT 1:50CGYSean MonahanGWGAssists: Paul Byron, Ladislav Smid · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 10:16EDMLuke Gazdic: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:16CGYKevin Westgarth: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:13CGYMark Giordano: Holding2 min
- P2 7:12CGYLadislav Smid: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:44EDMRyan Jones: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:40EDMAndrew Ference: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:25EDMJeff Petry: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:45EDMTaylor Hall: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:45CGYDennis Wideman: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Gordon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestCammalleri – Stajan – Jones11:22
xG 0.81–0.59 (58%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Colborne – Granlund – Monahan10:17
xG 0.48–0.36 (57%)attempts 5–13goals 1–1
- Hudler – Galiardi – Backlund12:51
xG 0.50–0.43 (54%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Brodie14:49
xG 1.09–0.47 (70%)attempts 21–12goals 1–1
- Smid – Brodie2:51
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Wideman – Smid10:18
xG 0.39–0.38 (51%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestSmyth – Jones – Gazdic5:05
xG 0.34–0.19 (65%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Gagner – Perron – Eberle11:56
xG 0.28–0.33 (45%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Hendricks – Gordon – Joensuu9:17
xG 0.23–0.39 (37%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Hemsky – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins13:12
xG 0.74–0.97 (43%)attempts 17–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Schultz14:55
xG 0.83–0.27 (76%)attempts 17–12goals 0–0
- Ference – Schultz2:08
xG 0.18–0.12 (61%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Ference – Fraser11:29
xG 0.19–0.54 (26%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).