Sun, Mar 2, 2014·Verizon Center, Washington
Philadelphia Flyers 5, Washington Capitals 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 16 | 114 | 214 | 12 | 536 |
| WSH | 217 | 29 | 03 | 00 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:06WSHDmitry OrlovAssists: Troy Brouwer, Martin Erat · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 11:22PHIClaude GirouxPPAssists: Kimmo Timonen, Jakub Voracek · Slap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 13:56WSHMarcus JohanssonAssists: Jason Chimera, Mike Green · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 12:50PHIAdam HallSHAssists: Sean Couturier · Slap, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 13:44WSHJay BeagleAssists: Joel Ward, Mike Green · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–3
- P2 16:23WSHDmitry OrlovAssists: Mike Green, Eric Fehr · Slap, 0.02 xG2–4
- P3 11:58PHIJakub VoracekPPAssists: Kimmo Timonen, Claude Giroux · Slap, 0.03 xG3–4
- P3 18:55PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Jakub Voracek, Braydon Coburn · Tip-in, 0.14 xG4–4
- OT 2:45PHIVincent LecavalierGWGAssists: Kimmo Timonen, Braydon Coburn · Wrist, 0.05 xG5–4
Penalties (14)
- P1 7:14PHISteve Downie: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:01WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 11:53PHILuke Schenn: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:14PHIMatt Read: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:05PHISteve Downie: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:05PHISteve Downie: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:32WSHBrooks Laich: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:23WSHJohn Carlson: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:23PHIScott Hartnell: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:39WSHKarl Alzner: High sticking2 min
- P3 0:40PHIWayne Simmonds: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:33WSHDmitry Orlov: Boarding5 min · PPG
- P3 10:58WSHJohn Erskine: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:58PHISteve Downie: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestHartnell – Giroux – Voracek9:44
xG 0.67–0.11 (86%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Downie – Read – Couturier6:24
xG 0.16–0.13 (54%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Hall – Rinaldo – Raffl4:56
xG 0.07–0.22 (23%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – Simmonds – Schenn9:37
xG 0.24–0.41 (37%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStreit – Grossmann8:47
xG 0.64–0.02 (97%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Coburn – Grossmann2:36
xG 0.06–0.04 (63%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Streit – Meszaros6:17
xG 0.21–0.20 (52%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestErat – Brouwer – Johansson6:32
xG 0.38–0.09 (81%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
- Laich – Brouwer – Backstrom2:39
xG 0.27–0.05 (84%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Erat – Fehr – Beagle2:08
xG 0.21–0.02 (92%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Beagle – Deschamps – Wilson4:45
xG 0.22–0.19 (55%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreen – Orlov13:28
xG 0.37–0.30 (56%)attempts 10–9goals 3–0
- Erskine – Carrick8:22
xG 0.45–0.39 (54%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Alzner – Carlson14:31
xG 0.44–0.69 (39%)attempts 11–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).