Sun, Mar 2, 2014·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Florida Panthers 5, New York Islanders 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 011 | 110 | 413 | 534 |
| NYI | 214 | 113 | 011 | 338 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:41NYIThomas VanekAssists: Cal Clutterbuck, Calvin de Haan · Snap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 7:39NYIThomas VanekPPAssists: Lubomir Visnovsky, Brock Nelson · Snap, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 18:15FLAShawn MatthiasAssists: Scottie Upshall · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–2
- P2 19:14NYIRyan StromeAssists: Thomas Vanek, Kyle Okposo · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–3
- P3 3:16FLAMarcel GocAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Tom Gilbert · Slap, 0.01 xG2–3
- P3 4:18FLAShawn MatthiasAssists: Jimmy Hayes, Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–3
- P3 10:31FLAScottie UpshallGWGAssists: Shawn Matthias, Brian Campbell · Snap, 0.26 xG4–3
- P3 15:26FLAJimmy HayesPPAssists: Scottie Upshall, Dylan Olsen · Deflected, 0.16 xG5–3
Penalties (24)
- P1 2:25NYIEric Boulton: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:25FLAKrys Barch: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:33FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Tripping2 min
- P1 2:33FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Roughing2 min
- P1 2:33FLAShawn Matthias: Roughing2 min
- P1 2:33NYIBrian Strait: High sticking2 min
- P1 2:33NYIBrian Strait: Roughing2 min
- P1 2:33NYIMatt Carkner: Roughing2 min
- P1 6:53FLADmitry Kulikov: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 9:28FLAJesse Winchester: Roughing2 min
- P1 9:28FLAErik Gudbranson: Cross checking2 min
- P1 12:18NYICasey Cizikas: Holding2 min
- P1 12:18FLAErik Gudbranson: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 12:18NYIColin McDonald: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 1:50NYIMatt Carkner: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 2:29FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:29NYICal Clutterbuck: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:38FLAErik Gudbranson: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:23FLASean Bergenheim: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:18FLASean Bergenheim: Interference2 min
- P3 14:13NYIMatt Carkner: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 15:26NYICasey Cizikas: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:27NYIKyle Okposo: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:27FLADmitry Kulikov: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bjugstad won the faceoff against Bailey
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBoyes – Bergenheim – Bjugstad11:58
xG 0.65–0.34 (66%)attempts 14–5goals 0–1
- Barch – Matthias – Hayes2:48
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Matthias – Hayes – Huberdeau2:07
xG 0.21–0.22 (49%)attempts 2–5goals 1–0
- Fleischmann – Upshall – Shore6:23
xG 0.21–0.38 (36%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeaver – Kulikov13:04
xG 0.87–0.47 (65%)attempts 14–12goals 2–0
- Campbell – Gilbert12:35
xG 0.40–0.42 (49%)attempts 9–8goals 1–1
- Olsen – Gudbranson12:20
xG 0.61–0.72 (46%)attempts 16–8goals 0–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Bailey – Lee9:18
xG 0.30–0.15 (66%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Boulton – McDonald – Cizikas3:12
xG 0.19–0.11 (63%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
- Clutterbuck – Grabner – Nelson5:01
xG 0.16–0.20 (44%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Vanek – Okposo – Strome10:33
xG 0.79–0.85 (48%)attempts 12–12goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestStrait – MacDonald10:35
xG 0.74–0.60 (55%)attempts 9–10goals 1–1
- MacDonald – de Haan4:34
xG 0.02–0.10 (17%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Carkner – de Haan6:07
xG 0.12–0.30 (28%)attempts 5–8goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).