Sun, Mar 2, 2014·Honda Center, Anaheim
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Anaheim Ducks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 012 | 114 | 226 | 352 |
| ANA | 313 | 213 | 08 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:39ANACorey PerryAssists: Dustin Penner, Ryan Getzlaf · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 13:38ANAFrancois BeaucheminAssists: Corey Perry, Dustin Penner · Slap, 0.04 xG0–2
- P1 16:26ANACorey PerryAssists: Cam Fowler · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–3
- P2 3:31ANAAndrew CoglianoSHGWGAssists: Saku Koivu · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–4
- P2 8:47ANAJakob SilfverbergAssists: Kyle Palmieri · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–5
- P2 15:20CARAndrej SekeraAssists: Ron Hainsey, Riley Nash · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–5
- P3 11:29CARPatrick DwyerAssists: John-Michael Liles, Nathan Gerbe · Wrist, 0.32 xG2–5
- P3 18:55CARAlexander SeminUnassisted · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–5
Penalties (13)
- P1 4:12ANACam Fowler: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:19CAREric Staal: Boarding2 min
- P2 2:56ANANick Bonino: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:55ANASaku Koivu: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 8:35CARDrayson Bowman: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 10:44ANAKyle Palmieri: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:40CAREric Staal: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:40ANAFrancois Beauchemin: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:21ANAJakob Silfverberg: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:43CARBrett Bellemore: Fighting5 min
- P3 7:43ANAPatrick Maroon: Fighting5 min
- P3 16:09ANAHampus Lindholm: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:19CAREric Staal: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestSemin – Tlusty – Staal10:41
xG 0.95–0.45 (68%)attempts 16–14goals 1–1
- Staal – Skinner – Lindholm13:18
xG 0.64–0.46 (58%)attempts 18–10goals 0–1
- Ruutu – Gerbe – Nash6:21
xG 0.51–0.52 (50%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
- Malhotra – Dwyer – Bowman4:52
xG 0.16–0.18 (47%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Liles9:10
xG 1.16–0.47 (71%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Liles – Harrison4:01
xG 0.78–0.12 (87%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Bellemore8:11
xG 0.59–0.18 (76%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Penner10:44
xG 0.92–0.46 (67%)attempts 18–7goals 3–1
- Bonino – Maroon – Palmieri5:11
xG 0.05–0.22 (20%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Koivu – Winnik – Cogliano11:39
xG 0.36–0.64 (36%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
- Selanne – Beleskey – Silfverberg8:16
xG 0.44–1.36 (24%)attempts 14–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Lindholm15:05
xG 1.02–0.54 (65%)attempts 19–11goals 2–1
- Lovejoy – Fowler12:18
xG 0.24–0.76 (24%)attempts 7–17goals 1–0
- Allen – Sbisa11:05
xG 0.46–1.46 (24%)attempts 17–20goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).