Tue, Mar 4, 2014·Prudential Center, Newark
Detroit Red Wings 3, New Jersey Devils 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 17 | 112 | 14 | 323 |
| NJD | 18 | 07 | 314 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:27NJDAdam HenriqueUnassisted · Backhand, 0.19 xG0–1
- P1 11:26DETJohan FranzenPPUnassisted · Snap, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 7:03DETBrendan SmithAssists: Justin Abdelkader · Snap, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 0:41NJDMarek ZidlickyPPAssists: Damien Brunner, Patrik Elias · Deflected, 0.46 xG2–2
- P3 6:30NJDTravis ZajacAssists: Jaromir Jagr, Ryane Clowe · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 9:43DETTodd BertuzziPPAssists: Johan Franzen, Gustav Nyquist · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–3
- P3 19:23NJDStephen GiontaGWGAssists: Mark Fayne, Dainius Zubrus · Tip-in, 0.06 xG3–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:12DETKyle Quincey: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 10:03NJDBryce Salvador: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 0:35NJDMark Fayne: Holding2 min
- P2 15:23NJDRyane Clowe: Boarding2 min
- P2 17:56DETKyle Quincey: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:39DETBrian Lashoff: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 0:00DETLuke Glendening: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00NJDAdam Henrique: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:30NJDEric Gelinas: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Helm won the faceoff against Elias
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Miller – Glendening6:35
xG 0.44–0.19 (69%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Alfredsson – Abdelkader – Glendening2:31
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Alfredsson – Abdelkader – Helm5:58
xG 0.05–0.26 (15%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
- Franzen – Andersson – Nyquist11:53
xG 0.14–0.45 (24%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestQuincey – DeKeyser12:23
xG 0.67–0.51 (57%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
- Smith – Lashoff11:23
xG 0.28–0.27 (51%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Kronwall – DeKeyser2:49
xG 0.00–0.24 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Clowe – Zajac5:20
xG 0.45–0.14 (76%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Jagr – Zubrus – Zajac6:53
xG 0.37–0.13 (74%)attempts 6–2goals 0–1
- Elias – Henrique – Brunner8:16
xG 0.63–0.43 (60%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Ryder – Clowe – Loktionov5:23
xG 0.16–0.05 (75%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFayne – Greene15:19
xG 0.56–0.24 (70%)attempts 11–5goals 1–1
- Salvador – Merrill5:06
xG 0.29–0.06 (82%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Salvador – Zidlicky10:52
xG 0.23–0.18 (56%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).