Tue, Mar 4, 2014·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Dallas Stars 2, Columbus Blue Jackets 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 05 | 012 | 216 | 233 |
| CBJ | 39 | 01 | 110 | 420 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:14CBJBoone JennerAssists: Ryan Johansen, Nathan Horton · Snap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 11:29CBJR.J. UmbergerAssists: Brandon Dubinsky, James Wisniewski · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–2
- P1 15:00CBJArtem AnisimovPPGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.17 xG0–3
- P3 1:39DALAlex GoligoskiPPAssists: Ray Whitney, Jamie Benn · Snap, 0.24 xG1–3
- P3 3:22DALTrevor DaleyAssists: Sergei Gonchar, Erik Cole · Deflected, 0.11 xG2–3
- P3 15:53CBJArtem AnisimovAssists: Dalton Prout, Marian Gaborik · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:33CBJBoone Jenner: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:51DALRyan Garbutt: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 16:58DALAntoine Roussel: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:30CBJNathan Horton: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:30CBJMatt Calvert: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 3:44CBJR.J. Umberger: Diving2 min
- P3 3:44DALBrenden Dillon: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fiddler won the faceoff against MacKenzie
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestCole – Chiasson – Eakin10:30
xG 0.46–0.26 (64%)attempts 15–5goals 1–1
- Benn – Mueller – Seguin3:50
xG 0.21–0.12 (64%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Whitney – Horcoff – Nichushkin3:00
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Horcoff – Mueller – Nichushkin2:14
xG 0.07–0.01 (85%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGonchar – Dillon3:56
xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
- Benn – Dillon15:55
xG 0.23–0.13 (65%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Gonchar – Daley3:03
xG 0.15–0.07 (68%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestHorton – Johansen – Jenner12:05
xG 0.25–0.05 (85%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Gaborik – Foligno – Anisimov9:41
xG 0.19–0.20 (49%)attempts 9–5goals 1–1
- MacKenzie – Letestu – Calvert9:23
xG 0.06–0.14 (31%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Umberger – Dubinsky – Atkinson8:38
xG 0.20–0.38 (34%)attempts 3–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestWisniewski – Nikitin8:11
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Wisniewski – Johnson4:15
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Wisniewski – Goloubef6:27
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).