Tue, Mar 4, 2014·United Center, Chicago
Colorado Avalanche 4, Chicago Blackhawks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 03 | 111 | 37 | 421 |
| CHI | 011 | 113 | 114 | 238 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:49COLMax TalbotAssists: Erik Johnson, Jan Hejda · Tip-in, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 16:52CHIBen SmithAssists: Brandon Bollig, Niklas Hjalmarsson · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P3 1:23COLRyan O'ReillyAssists: Matt Duchene, Erik Johnson · Snap, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 7:17CHIJonathan ToewsPPAssists: Patrick Sharp, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–2
- P3 12:50COLTyson BarriePPGWGAssists: Erik Johnson, Ryan O'Reilly · Slap, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 19:27COLPaul StastnyENAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.65 xG4–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 11:13COLJan Hejda: Interference2 min
- P1 18:40COLErik Johnson: Holding2 min
- P2 7:09CHIDuncan Keith: Holding2 min
- P2 12:37CHIKris Versteeg: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 13:54COLJamie McGinn: Interference2 min
- P3 6:11COLNathan MacKinnon: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 11:24CHIJohnny Oduya: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Stastny
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- Parenteau – O'Reilly – Duchene12:12
xG 0.34–0.46 (42%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
- Bordeleau – McLeod – Cliche4:49
xG 0.00–0.36 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Stastny – Landeskog – MacKinnon13:22
xG 0.14–0.53 (21%)attempts 5–14goals 0–1
- Talbot – Mitchell – McGinn11:29
xG 0.12–0.62 (16%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHejda – Johnson10:37
xG 0.38–0.26 (59%)attempts 7–8goals 2–0
- Johnson – Holden4:28
xG 0.10–0.03 (80%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Benoit – Hejda3:19
xG 0.01–0.38 (1%)attempts 2–8goals 0–1
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Kruger – Bollig9:52
xG 0.53–0.02 (96%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Handzus – Versteeg – Kane7:40
xG 0.56–0.14 (80%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Bickell – Regin – Shaw6:14
xG 0.36–0.06 (87%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Sharp – Toews – Saad10:51
xG 0.51–0.26 (67%)attempts 13–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRozsival – Leddy10:18
xG 0.85–0.00 (100%)attempts 16–1goals 0–0
- Oduya – Hjalmarsson14:07
xG 0.60–0.16 (79%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Rozsival – Oduya2:46
xG 0.32–0.06 (85%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).