Tue, Mar 4, 2014·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, St. Louis Blues 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 26 | 06 | 05 | 217 |
| STL | 012 | 210 | 27 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:08TBLAlex KillornAssists: Teddy Purcell · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 14:49TBLTyler JohnsonPPAssists: Martin St. Louis, Victor Hedman · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–0
- P2 3:32STLPatrik BerglundAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Vladimir Tarasenko · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 17:04STLT.J. OshieSHAssists: Alexander Steen, Alex Pietrangelo · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–2
- P3 3:47STLAlexander SteenGWGAssists: David Backes, T.J. Oshie · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 19:21STLVladimir TarasenkoENAssists: David Backes, Jaden Schwartz · Backhand, 0.64 xG2–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 8:22TBLEric Brewer: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:21STLBrenden Morrow: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:17STLJaden Schwartz: Holding2 min
- P2 16:03STLDavid Backes: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:08STLAlexander Steen: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 12:24TBLMatt Carle: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lapierre won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestMalone – Crombeen – Thompson8:54
xG 0.15–0.06 (70%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Kucherov – Brown7:52
xG 0.36–0.36 (50%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Filppula – Purcell – Killorn11:00
xG 0.22–0.27 (46%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- St. Louis – Johnson – Palat11:13
xG 0.17–0.66 (21%)attempts 6–15goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestSalo – Hedman5:08
xG 0.39–0.07 (84%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Barberio – Hedman2:25
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Salo – Carle4:18
xG 0.15–0.06 (70%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBerglund – Tarasenko – Schwartz7:49
xG 0.66–0.20 (77%)attempts 9–3goals 1–1
- Steen – Backes – Oshie12:51
xG 0.53–0.33 (62%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Lapierre – Reaves – Paajarvi6:31
xG 0.20–0.06 (76%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Morrow – Ott – Roy6:42
xG 0.44–0.31 (59%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Pietrangelo16:26
xG 0.96–0.40 (71%)attempts 26–8goals 1–0
- Jackman – Shattenkirk11:36
xG 0.47–0.28 (63%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Polak – Cole14:04
xG 0.49–0.36 (58%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).