Tue, Mar 4, 2014·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Nashville Predators 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 08 | 14 | 27 | 319 |
| NSH | 07 | 14 | 08 | 119 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:27PITMatt NiskanenAssists: Sidney Crosby, Brian Gibbons · Slap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 0:39NSHPatric HornqvistAssists: Nick Spaling, Mike Fisher · Wrist, 0.41 xG1–1
- P3 7:29PITMatt NiskanenPPGWGAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Sidney Crosby · Slap, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 17:05PITChris KunitzAssists: Sidney Crosby · Slap, 0.09 xG3–1
Penalties (12)
- P1 9:49NSHSimon Moser: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:34PITJames Neal: Boarding2 min
- P1 19:36NSHColin Wilson: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:36PITRobert Bortuzzo: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:26PITSimon Despres: Holding2 min
- P2 9:16NSHMichael Del Zotto: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:11PITJussi Jokinen: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 6:47NSHDavid Legwand: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 10:21PITMatt Niskanen: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:19NSHDavid Legwand: Interference2 min
- P3 17:05NSHShea Weber: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 17:05NSHShea Weber: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Legwand won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Crosby – Gibbons8:31
xG 0.46–0.23 (67%)attempts 8–6goals 2–0
- Adams – Kobasew – Glass4:12
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Vitale – Sutter5:53
xG 0.05–0.17 (21%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Malkin – Neal8:38
xG 0.35–0.57 (38%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestScuderi – Niskanen12:03
xG 0.28–0.22 (56%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Bortuzzo – Despres8:02
xG 0.33–0.29 (53%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Orpik – Maatta15:05
xG 0.33–0.83 (28%)attempts 9–15goals 1–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestFisher – Hornqvist – Spaling5:12
xG 0.52–0.06 (90%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Gaustad – Spaling – Moser2:28
xG 0.08–0.01 (86%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Cullen – Gaustad – Moser2:34
xG 0.14–0.09 (60%)attempts 6–1goals 0–1
- Nystrom – Stalberg – Wilson5:58
xG 0.07–0.03 (69%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEllis – Ekholm8:14
xG 0.57–0.23 (71%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Del Zotto – Jones8:20
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Ekholm – Jones2:54
xG 0.07–0.03 (69%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).