Tue, Mar 4, 2014·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Ottawa Senators 2, Edmonton Oilers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 111 | 08 | 117 | 236 |
| EDM | 17 | 112 | 111 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:22OTTJason SpezzaAssists: Milan Michalek · Snap, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 14:30EDMAles HemskyPPAssists: Nail Yakupov, Andrew Ference · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 8:58EDMAles HemskyAssists: Sam Gagner, Taylor Hall · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 4:26EDMJordan EberleGWGAssists: Boyd Gordon, Taylor Hall · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–3
- P3 17:05OTTErik KarlssonAssists: Marc Methot · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 12:55OTTCody Ceci: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 5:18EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Holding2 min
- P3 17:26EDMMatt Hendricks: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:26OTTEric Gryba: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:26OTTEric Gryba: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:08EDMRyan Smyth: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nugent-Hopkins won the faceoff against Spezza
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Michalek – Conacher8:22
xG 0.44–0.22 (67%)attempts 14–5goals 1–1
- Neil – Greening – Smith9:14
xG 0.33–0.20 (62%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Ryan – Hoffman – Zibanejad6:15
xG 0.10–0.02 (83%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Spezza – Hoffman – Zibanejad5:24
xG 0.11–0.15 (41%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMethot – Karlsson22:26
xG 0.75–0.44 (63%)attempts 34–12goals 1–1
- Phillips – Ceci15:22
xG 0.52–0.54 (49%)attempts 17–17goals 1–0
- Gryba – Wiercioch10:16
xG 0.19–0.24 (44%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHemsky – Gagner – Hall11:29
xG 0.59–0.32 (65%)attempts 17–18goals 1–1
- Smyth – Joensuu – Gazdic6:43
xG 0.26–0.03 (89%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Hemsky – Gagner – Eberle3:11
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Gordon – Eberle3:49
xG 0.11–0.06 (64%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Schultz15:40
xG 0.65–0.49 (57%)attempts 13–23goals 0–1
- Petry – Marincin14:55
xG 0.31–0.20 (61%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
- Ference – Fraser16:27
xG 0.43–0.77 (36%)attempts 12–19goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).