Tue, Mar 4, 2014·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Carolina Hurricanes 3, San Jose Sharks 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 116 | 18 | 07 | 14 | 335 |
| SJS | 211 | 09 | 016 | 01 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:07CARJiri TlustyAssists: Alexander Semin, John-Michael Liles · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 13:05SJSMartin HavlatAssists: Tyler Kennedy, Andrew Desjardins · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P1 19:32SJSBrent BurnsAssists: Raffi Torres, James Sheppard · Slap, 0.15 xG1–2
- P2 4:16CARElias LindholmAssists: Eric Staal, Andrej Sekera · Slap, 0.12 xG2–2
- OT 4:18CARJay HarrisonGWGAssists: Elias Lindholm, Andrej Sekera · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–2
Penalties (3)
- P1 3:52SJSDan Boyle: Slashing2 min
- P1 4:12CAREric Staal: Interference2 min
- P2 5:30SJSJames Sheppard: Illegal check to head2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestRuutu – Gerbe – Nash8:41
xG 0.54–0.40 (58%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Malhotra – Dwyer – Bowman6:14
xG 0.11–0.07 (62%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Semin – Tlusty – Staal17:16
xG 0.61–0.73 (46%)attempts 19–16goals 1–1
- Staal – Skinner – Lindholm12:17
xG 0.49–1.00 (33%)attempts 10–22goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestLiles – Sekera16:59
xG 1.01–0.62 (62%)attempts 25–14goals 2–0
- Liles – Bellemore2:02
xG 0.11–0.10 (50%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Komisarek – Harrison13:01
xG 0.29–0.50 (37%)attempts 11–18goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestHavlat – Kennedy – Desjardins10:27
xG 0.37–0.12 (76%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Marleau – Couture – Wingels15:25
xG 1.06–0.82 (56%)attempts 21–16goals 0–2
- Torres – Sheppard – Nieto5:07
xG 0.25–0.07 (78%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Nieto7:02
xG 0.10–0.43 (19%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoyle – Irwin7:01
xG 0.61–0.13 (83%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Hannan – Braun8:31
xG 0.35–0.23 (60%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Braun – Irwin4:45
xG 0.33–0.26 (56%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).