Wed, Mar 5, 2014·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Washington Capitals 4, Philadelphia Flyers 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 03 | 15 | 317 | 425 |
| PHI | 213 | 210 | 27 | 630 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:48PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Sean Couturier, Matt Read · Backhand, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 8:22PHIJakub VoracekPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Wayne Simmonds · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–2
- P2 5:26PHIClaude GirouxUnassisted · Snap, 0.09 xG0–3
- P2 11:52PHIMichael RafflAssists: Luke Schenn, Andrew MacDonald · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–4
- P2 14:06WSHMike GreenPPAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Jason Chimera · Snap, 0.02 xG1–4
- P3 6:35WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, John Carlson · Snap, 0.04 xG2–4
- P3 9:25WSHTroy BrouwerAssists: Jack Hillen, Nicklas Backstrom · Snap, 0.13 xG3–4
- P3 11:51PHIJakub VoracekGWGAssists: Scott Hartnell · Snap, 0.09 xG3–5
- P3 14:00WSHBrooks LaichPPAssists: Mike Green, Karl Alzner · Tip-in, 0.01 xG4–5
- P3 19:08PHISteve DownieENAssists: Matt Read, Brayden Schenn · Wrist, 0.48 xG4–6
Penalties (17)
- P1 8:09WSHTroy Brouwer: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 11:59PHILuke Schenn: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:59PHIVincent Lecavalier: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:59WSHJohn Erskine: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:59PHIVincent Lecavalier: Game misconduct10 min
- P1 11:59WSHTom Wilson: Instigator2 min
- P1 11:59WSHTom Wilson: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:59WSHTom Wilson: Misconduct10 min
- P1 11:59PHIWayne Simmonds: Cross checking2 min
- P1 11:59PHIWayne Simmonds: Slashing2 min
- P1 11:59WSHJohn Erskine: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 12:23PHILuke Schenn: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 16:02WSHNicklas Backstrom: Interference2 min
- P3 4:53PHISteve Downie: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P3 7:43PHIZac Rinaldo: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:43WSHJason Chimera: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:11PHIMark Streit: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Johansson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Backstrom – Johansson3:28
xG 0.60–0.07 (89%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Penner – Brouwer – Johansson6:35
xG 0.20–0.10 (67%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Chimera – Ward – Fehr8:02
xG 0.16–0.26 (38%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
- Laich – Ovechkin – Backstrom6:04
xG 0.10–0.28 (26%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGreen – Hillen11:25
xG 1.01–0.52 (66%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
- Hillen – Carlson2:33
xG 0.14–0.02 (86%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Green – Alzner7:18
xG 0.22–0.12 (64%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestSimmonds – Schenn – Raffl4:04
xG 0.16–0.02 (89%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Hall – Rinaldo – Raffl3:51
xG 0.24–0.14 (62%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Simmonds – Rinaldo – Schenn2:19
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Giroux – Voracek12:13
xG 0.39–0.37 (51%)attempts 11–9goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestStreit – Grossmann13:32
xG 0.57–0.33 (63%)attempts 17–9goals 1–0
- Streit – Coburn2:11
xG 0.03–0.01 (67%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- MacDonald – Schenn12:28
xG 0.33–0.51 (39%)attempts 12–9goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).