Wed, Mar 5, 2014·Honda Center, Anaheim
Montréal Canadiens 4, Anaheim Ducks 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 210 | 19 | 09 | 03 | 3 | 431 |
| ANA | 013 | 319 | 07 | 03 | 2 | 342 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:23MTLBrian GiontaAssists: Tomas Plekanec · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–0
- P1 12:36MTLMax PaciorettyAssists: David Desharnais, Brendan Gallagher · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–0
- P2 7:08ANATim JackmanAssists: Luca Sbisa, Nick Bonino · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–1
- P2 9:07ANAFrancois BeaucheminPPAssists: Hampus Lindholm, Jonas Hiller · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–2
- P2 18:11ANADaniel WinnikAssists: Matt Beleskey, Ben Lovejoy · Wrist, 0.28 xG2–3
- P2 19:24MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: P.K. Subban, Travis Moen · Wrist, 0.33 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. ANA Nick Bonino scored
- 2. MTL Alex Galchenyuk stopped
- 3. ANA Jakob Silfverberg stopped
- 4. MTL David Desharnais scored
- 5. ANA Corey Perry scored
- 6. MTL Daniel Brière scored
- 7. ANA Ryan Getzlaf stopped
- 8. MTL Brendan Gallagher stopped
- 9. ANA Kyle Palmieri stopped
- 10. MTL Tomas Plekanec stopped
- 11. ANA Saku Koivu stopped
- 12. MTL Andrei Markov scored
Penalties (13)
- P1 5:03MTLGeorge Parros: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:03ANATim Jackman: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:03MTLGeorge Parros: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 10:01MTLP.K. Subban: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:15ANAMark Fistric: Cross checking2 min
- P1 19:10MTLDaniel Brière: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:21ANACorey Perry: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:24MTLAlexei Emelin: Holding2 min
- P2 7:36MTLAlexei Emelin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 15:48ANABen Lovejoy: Boarding2 min
- P3 6:30ANABryan Allen: Interference2 min
- P3 12:20MTLRene Bourque: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:55ANASaku Koivu: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against White
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGionta – Plekanec – Galchenyuk8:27
xG 0.91–0.64 (59%)attempts 14–12goals 1–1
- Desharnais – Pacioretty – Gallagher10:32
xG 0.57–0.38 (60%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Brière – Bourque – Weise4:58
xG 0.16–0.09 (64%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Bourque – White – Weise3:25
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMarkov – Emelin11:13
xG 0.84–0.24 (78%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
- Gorges – Subban9:10
xG 0.74–0.23 (76%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Emelin – Subban2:23
xG 0.08–0.10 (46%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestBonino – Maroon – Silfverberg6:13
xG 0.32–0.12 (72%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Palmieri10:42
xG 0.56–0.47 (54%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Koivu – Cogliano – Beleskey8:23
xG 0.27–0.63 (30%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestAllen – Fistric8:41
xG 0.57–0.16 (78%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Lovejoy – Fowler10:39
xG 0.29–0.53 (35%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Beauchemin – Lindholm12:45
xG 0.37–1.16 (24%)attempts 15–19goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).