Thu, Mar 6, 2014·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Colorado Avalanche 3, Detroit Red Wings 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 08 | 17 | 17 | 13 | 325 |
| DET | 113 | 111 | 012 | 01 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:33DETNiklas KronwallAssists: Joakim Andersson, Jonathan Ericsson · Backhand, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 10:11COLMatt DucheneAssists: Erik Johnson, Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 12:10DETTomas JurcoPPAssists: Riley Sheahan, Danny DeKeyser · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–2
- P3 5:49COLPA ParenteauAssists: Matt Duchene, Ryan O'Reilly · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–2
- OT 4:28COLAndre BenoitGWGAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Erik Johnson · Snap, 0.05 xG3–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 14:40DETBrian Lashoff: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:27COLNick Holden: Tripping2 min · PPG
- OT 0:55DETNiklas Kronwall: Holding2 min
- OT 2:03COLPaul Stastny: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Legwand won the faceoff against Stastny
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Landeskog – MacKinnon13:57
xG 0.44–0.23 (65%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Talbot – Mitchell – McGinn11:44
xG 0.24–0.07 (77%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Parenteau – O'Reilly – Duchene13:36
xG 0.51–0.50 (50%)attempts 15–18goals 2–0
- Bordeleau – McLeod – Cliche5:30
xG 0.07–0.16 (31%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHejda – Johnson20:19
xG 0.59–0.51 (54%)attempts 17–19goals 2–0
- Holden – Barrie17:13
xG 0.61–0.55 (53%)attempts 10–18goals 0–1
- Sarich – Benoit14:22
xG 0.06–0.58 (9%)attempts 4–15goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Miller – Andersson9:28
xG 0.38–0.14 (73%)attempts 12–3goals 1–0
- Tatar – Sheahan – Jurco13:12
xG 0.62–0.40 (60%)attempts 20–9goals 0–0
- Alfredsson – Abdelkader – Glendening12:19
xG 0.28–0.19 (61%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Legwand – Franzen – Nyquist12:28
xG 0.16–0.29 (37%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Ericsson17:01
xG 0.67–0.53 (56%)attempts 21–16goals 1–1
- Smith – Lashoff15:02
xG 0.34–0.29 (55%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Kronwall – DeKeyser2:42
xG 0.08–0.03 (73%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).