Thu, Mar 6, 2014·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale
Montréal Canadiens 2, Phoenix Coyotes 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 17 | 112 | 07 | 226 |
| PHX | 315 | 01 | 27 | 523 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:08PHXRadim VrbataAssists: David Schlemko, Kyle Chipchura · Tip-in, 0.01 xG0–1
- P1 7:13MTLAndrei MarkovAssists: P.K. Subban, Brendan Gallagher · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P1 15:04PHXLauri KorpikoskiPPAssists: Michael Stone, Mike Ribeiro · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–2
- P1 19:51PHXOliver Ekman-LarssonGWGAssists: Shane Doan, Mike Ribeiro · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
- P2 14:53MTLAlex GalchenyukPPAssists: P.K. Subban, Andrei Markov · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–3
- P3 11:43PHXRadim VrbataAssists: Kyle Chipchura · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–4
- P3 13:28PHXShane DoanPPAssists: Keith Yandle, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:48MTLBrendan Gallagher: Interference2 min
- P1 13:19MTLLars Eller: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 1:55PHXMike Ribeiro: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:16PHXOliver Ekman-Larsson: Holding2 min
- P2 13:09PHXMartin Erat: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:24PHXOliver Ekman-Larsson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 2:49PHXJeff Halpern: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:39MTLMike Weaver: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Vermette won the faceoff against Desharnais
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestDesharnais – Pacioretty – Gallagher12:24
xG 0.64–0.27 (70%)attempts 16–4goals 1–1
- Bourque – Eller – Galchenyuk4:54
xG 0.12–0.01 (93%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Brière – Bourque – Galchenyuk3:39
xG 0.19–0.14 (57%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- Moen – White – Eller3:14
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMarkov – Emelin12:34
xG 0.27–0.19 (59%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Subban – Tinordi12:50
xG 0.39–0.37 (51%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
- Markov – Subban3:15
xG 0.02–0.11 (18%)attempts 4–3goals 1–1
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestErat – Vrbata – Chipchura8:45
xG 0.62–0.18 (77%)attempts 11–3goals 2–0
- Halpern – Moss – Klinkhammer5:35
xG 0.32–0.07 (82%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Doan – Ribeiro – McMillan10:59
xG 0.13–0.35 (27%)attempts 6–13goals 1–0
- Vermette – Korpikoski – Boedker9:38
xG 0.10–0.44 (19%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Stone2:54
xG 0.20–0.01 (95%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Michalek – Ekman-Larsson18:30
xG 0.48–0.34 (59%)attempts 10–15goals 1–0
- Schlemko – Stone5:21
xG 0.20–0.16 (55%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).