Thu, Mar 6, 2014·Rexall Place, Edmonton
New York Islanders 2, Edmonton Oilers 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 213 | 010 | 09 | 02 | 234 |
| EDM | 04 | 010 | 211 | 14 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:58NYIFrans NielsenSHAssists: Cal Clutterbuck, Thomas Hickey · Snap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 18:21NYIAnders LeeAssists: Brian Strait, Colin McDonald · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–0
- P3 8:28EDMRyan SmythPPAssists: Jordan Eberle, Sam Gagner · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 16:53EDMPhilip LarsenAssists: Ryan Smyth, David Perron · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- OT 2:29EDMTaylor HallGWGAssists: Sam Gagner · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 6:45EDMJustin Schultz: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:43NYIBrock Nelson: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 14:27NYIThomas Hickey: Interference2 min
- P1 14:47EDMDavid Perron: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 12:28EDMTaylor Hall: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:40NYILubomir Visnovsky: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:55EDMDavid Perron: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:55NYITravis Hamonic: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 18:12NYIMatt Martin: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:12EDMMark Fraser: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Okposo – Grabner10:52
xG 0.46–0.12 (79%)attempts 18–7goals 0–0
- Martin – Cizikas – Halmo8:35
xG 0.29–0.04 (89%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Bailey – Nelson8:53
xG 0.15–0.16 (48%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- McDonald – Lee – Strome9:56
xG 0.14–0.66 (18%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDonovan – de Haan11:23
xG 0.29–0.21 (58%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Visnovsky – Hickey12:19
xG 0.25–0.32 (44%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Strait – Hamonic15:52
xG 0.32–0.93 (26%)attempts 13–19goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestGagner – Perron – Hall6:04
xG 0.52–0.03 (94%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Gagner – Hall – Yakupov6:10
xG 0.29–0.09 (77%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Gordon – Joensuu7:59
xG 0.23–0.17 (58%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins – Yakupov4:26
xG 0.14–0.15 (47%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Marincin6:24
xG 0.74–0.05 (93%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Larsen – Marincin2:04
xG 0.12–0.04 (76%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Ference – Larsen3:35
xG 0.11–0.03 (79%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).