Fri, Mar 7, 2014·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
New Jersey Devils 4, Detroit Red Wings 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 06 | 310 | 19 | 425 |
| DET | 111 | 413 | 29 | 733 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:43DETBrendan SmithAssists: Johan Franzen, Gustav Nyquist · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 5:34DETJohan FranzenAssists: Gustav Nyquist, David Legwand · Deflected, 0.12 xG0–2
- P2 9:23NJDPatrik EliasSHUnassisted · Slap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 10:20NJDJaromir JagrAssists: Marek Zidlicky · Snap, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 11:44NJDAdam HenriqueAssists: Mark Fayne, Andy Greene · Wrist, 0.33 xG3–2
- P2 13:47DETJohan FranzenPPAssists: Todd Bertuzzi, Gustav Nyquist · Slap, 0.10 xG3–3
- P2 15:05DETGustav NyquistAssists: David Legwand, Jonathan Ericsson · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–4
- P2 17:01DETKyle QuinceyGWGAssists: Riley Sheahan, Danny DeKeyser · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–5
- P3 4:48DETDavid LegwandAssists: Johan Franzen · Wrist, 0.30 xG3–6
- P3 12:52DETDrew MillerAssists: Todd Bertuzzi, Joakim Andersson · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–7
- P3 18:42NJDAdam HenriqueAssists: Michael Ryder, Ryane Clowe · Backhand, 0.04 xG4–7
Penalties (6)
- P1 16:22DETTodd Bertuzzi: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:48NJDTravis Zajac: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:33DETDavid Legwand: Cross checking2 min
- P2 7:47NJDMark Fayne: Interference2 min
- P2 13:17NJDJon Merrill: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 2:38DETJonathan Ericsson: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Legwand won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestElias – Henrique – Brunner7:47
xG 0.48–0.13 (79%)attempts 4–3goals 1–1
- Elias – Ryder – Henrique2:19
xG 0.02–0.09 (17%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Zubrus – Ryder – Ruutu6:34
xG 0.22–0.35 (38%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Bernier – Gionta – Carter8:47
xG 0.05–0.20 (21%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFayne – Greene13:41
xG 0.79–0.29 (73%)attempts 16–9goals 1–1
- Zidlicky – Gelinas8:17
xG 0.34–0.12 (73%)attempts 7–2goals 2–1
- Gelinas – Merrill6:27
xG 0.02–0.12 (12%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestLegwand – Franzen – Nyquist10:24
xG 1.26–0.30 (81%)attempts 16–8goals 3–0
- Alfredsson – Abdelkader – Glendening10:07
xG 0.58–0.33 (64%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Miller – Andersson9:53
xG 0.21–0.13 (63%)attempts 3–8goals 1–1
- Tatar – Sheahan – Jurco11:45
xG 0.16–0.48 (25%)attempts 6–6goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Ericsson14:16
xG 1.26–0.51 (71%)attempts 14–15goals 2–1
- Kindl – Smith16:36
xG 0.43–0.41 (51%)attempts 13–9goals 1–1
- Quincey – DeKeyser15:05
xG 0.14–0.50 (22%)attempts 6–8goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).