Fri, Mar 7, 2014·Honda Center, Anaheim
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Anaheim Ducks 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 13 | 04 | 17 | 03 | 3 | 317 |
| ANA | 112 | 011 | 15 | 03 | 2 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:54ANACorey PerryAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Saku Koivu · Wrist, 0.33 xG0–1
- P1 7:47PITDeryk EngellandAssists: Jussi Jokinen, Evgeni Malkin · Snap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P3 1:10ANACorey PerryAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Kyle Palmieri · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
- P3 8:57PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: James Neal, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. PIT James Neal stopped
- 2. ANA Nick Bonino stopped
- 3. PIT Sidney Crosby scored
- 4. ANA Kyle Palmieri stopped
- 5. PIT Evgeni Malkin stopped
- 6. ANA Corey Perry scored
- 7. PIT Jussi Jokinen stopped
- 8. ANA Jakob Silfverberg stopped
- 9. PIT Chris Kunitz scored
- 10. ANA Teemu Selanne scored
- 11. PIT Brandon Sutter scored
- 12. ANA Ryan Getzlaf stopped
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:27PITChris Kunitz: Slashing2 min
- P1 8:21PITTanner Glass: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:21ANAPatrick Maroon: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:00ANAFrancois Beauchemin: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:10ANABryan Allen: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:10PITJoe Vitale: Diving2 min
- P1 17:42PITJames Neal: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:17PITLee Stempniak: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:24ANAFrancois Beauchemin: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:14ANAKyle Palmieri: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Stempniak – Crosby13:28
xG 0.37–0.20 (65%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Vitale – Sutter2:25
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Malkin – Neal5:22
xG 0.12–0.13 (48%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Adams – Goc – Glass3:57
xG 0.01–0.20 (7%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScuderi – Orpik2:16
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Engelland – Despres10:18
xG 0.19–0.26 (41%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Orpik – Maatta12:20
xG 0.35–0.78 (31%)attempts 12–12goals 0–2
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Palmieri12:53
xG 0.78–0.11 (88%)attempts 14–11goals 2–0
- Bonino – Maroon – Silfverberg7:41
xG 0.34–0.03 (91%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Selanne – Beleskey – Rakell7:33
xG 0.48–0.19 (72%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Koivu – Winnik – Cogliano12:14
xG 0.25–0.43 (37%)attempts 13–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Lindholm13:05
xG 0.51–0.13 (79%)attempts 16–5goals 1–1
- Allen – Lovejoy3:01
xG 0.40–0.03 (93%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Allen – Beauchemin6:28
xG 0.43–0.14 (76%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).